Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:11:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7327…a87d sports 28 markets active 20h ago coverage 21d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$25 (-2%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate43%12W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$39est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$31
7 days−$47
14 days−$47
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -29.7% -36.4% 31% 19% -14.4%
≤30d 28 -20.6% -28.2% 43% 25% -14.8%
≤90d 28 -20.6% -28.2% 43% 25% -14.8%
all 28 -20.6% -28.2% 43% 25% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.2% 25% -14.8%
10% ← realistic here -35.1% 11% -23.0%
15% -41.3% 7% -30.4%
20% -47.1% 7% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -34% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
8.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses12 / 16
Est. fees paid−$39
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage21d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $98 +$11 +11%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Poznan: Gustavo Heide vs Daniel Michalski Jun 16 $66 −$24 -36%
Grass Court Championships: Clara Tauson vs Diane Parry Jun 16 $25 −$8 -33%
Grass Court Championships: Magdalena Frech vs Eva Lys Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 16 $31 −$5 -16%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $56 +$8 +14%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $50 −$6 -13%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $113 −$4 -4%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $58 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $203 −$7 -3%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro Jun 14 $5 $0 +6%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $251 +$11 +4%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $24 −$2 -7%
Counter-Strike: G2 Ares vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 10 $3 $0 +2%
Valorant: Nightblood Gaming vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 01 $68 −$5 -8%
Valorant: Dynamo Esports vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Ameri Jun 01 $57 −$4 -7%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Lavked (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St Jun 01 $8 −$2 -31%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs ex-Zero Tenacity (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 G Jun 01 $11 −$2 -15%
Valorant: LOUD vs NRG (BO5) - Esports World Cup Americas Qualifier Sta Jun 01 $22 −$8 -36%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Game Hunters (BO3) - Circuit X Bas May 30 $29 +$1 +5%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 29 $5 +$1 +25%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $4 +$1 +20%
Counter-Strike: 3DMAX vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playo May 28 $33 +$4 +12%
Valorant: 100 Thieves vs FURIA Esports (BO3) - Esports World Cup Ameri May 28 $22 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $3 $0 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 90¢ $13 19h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 90¢ $13 19h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 68¢ $21 19h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 33¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 30¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL illwill 17¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 80¢ $4 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 55¢ $3 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 72¢ $15 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 75¢ $8 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 76¢ $8 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 77¢ $8 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 79¢ $8 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 71¢ $8 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 72¢ $8 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 73¢ $8 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 75¢ $8 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 72¢ $22 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 28¢ $1 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 64¢ $2 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 64¢ $3 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 64¢ $3 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 63¢ $3 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 63¢ $2 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group SELL KOLESIE 63¢ $3 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 57¢ $8 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 57¢ $8 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 57¢ $8 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY KOLESIE 57¢ $8 20h
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY KOLESIE 10¢ $3 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 437 history records