Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:41:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x732f…201e other 118 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 32d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (105 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$175 (-0%) realized −$523 · open +$348
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate14%30W / 182L
Whale WR31%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$491per market
Trades / day104.8pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$3,702now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$3,445
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (105 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-39.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -46.8% -51.9% 8% 8% -60.3%
≤30d 205 -42.9% -48.4% 14% 13% -36.8%
≤90d 212 -33.3% -39.7% 14% 14% -30.6%
all 212 -33.3% -39.7% 14% 14% -30.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover104.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -39.7% 14% -30.6%
10% ← realistic here -45.5% 13% -37.3%
15% -50.7% 12% -43.3%
20% -55.6% 11% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -33% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 31% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late -48% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
22.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,065 vs −$291 · ×3.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$3,702
Realized−$523
Unrealized+$348
Win rate (resolved)14%
Wins / losses30 / 182
Whale WR (big bets)31%
Open positions29
Markets (closed)212 / 118
History coverage32d ⚠
Avg bet$491
Trades / day104.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 212 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 47¢ 70¢ $1,146 $1,703 +$557 (+49%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 47¢ 100¢ $470 $1,000 +$530 (+113%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 42¢ 20¢ $620 $300 −$320 (-52%)
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $222 $253 +$31 (+14%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $95 $145 +$50 (+53%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 8¢ 14¢ $74 $140 +$66 (+89%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $38 $46 +$7 (+18%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $38 $26 −$12 (-31%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $38 $24 −$14 (-36%)
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $11 $19 +$8 (+68%)
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $38 $18 −$20 (-53%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $124 $6 −$118 (-95%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $5 −$33 (-87%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $17 $4 −$13 (-75%)
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $4 −$35 (-91%)
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $2 −$36 (-93%)
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $2 −$37 (-96%)
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-89%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$9 (-95%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$32 (-99%)
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$3 (-92%)
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 174 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? Jun 16 $514 −$505 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 16 $64 −$64 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 7 to Apri Jun 16 $703 −$703 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 16 $388 −$388 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $87 −$36 -42%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 16 $593 −$593 -100%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 16 $55 −$55 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? Jun 16 $716 −$716 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026? Jun 16 $221 −$228 -103%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? Jun 16 $47 −$39 -83%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 16 $860 −$995 -116%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $446 +$50 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Jun 16 $423 +$110 +26%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 16 $1,366 −$1,366 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 16 $538 −$500 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026? Jun 16 $215 −$215 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Jun 16 $1,763 −$1,829 -104%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 16 $405 −$405 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026? Jun 16 $398 −$395 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Donald Trump post 120-139 Truth Social posts from April 10 to Apr Jun 16 $196 −$221 -113%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 16 $363 −$21 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 13 to April 15, 2026? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 16 $251 −$251 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026? Jun 16 $839 −$1,207 -144%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $5 +$226 +4102%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026? Jun 16 $465 −$558 -120%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 16 $152 −$154 -101%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026? Jun 16 $30 −$27 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 16 $529 −$290 -55%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Jun 16 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026? Jun 16 $697 −$614 -88%
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026? Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026? Jun 16 $280 −$378 -135%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026? Jun 16 $120 −$126 -105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $23 1m
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 5m
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $3 15m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $20 20m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 20m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $2 20m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $49 23m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $80 23m
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 23m
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $139 35m
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 35m
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $3 59m
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $24 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $59 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $48 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $65 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $46 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $132 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $27 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $35 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $99 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $0 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,701.79 · official $3,701.71 (match) · 3500 history records