Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T23:32:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7334…cc1c sports 1017 markets active 0h ago coverage 48d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$966 (-15%) realized −$1,145 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +44% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate28%300W / 756L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day48.8pace
Fees−$133est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$21
7 days−$140
14 days−$197
30 days−$1,086
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$808
other 11% −$77
finance 5% −$99
world 5% −$37
crypto 4% −$63
politics 1% −$30
culture 1% −$7
tech 0% −$6
weather 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+30.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 194 +18.6% +7.3% 23% 17% -22.9%
≤30d 809 +39.9% +26.6% 29% 24% -23.6%
≤90d 1056 +44.1% +30.4% 28% 24% -21.0%
all 1056 +44.1% +30.4% 28% 24% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +30.4% 24% -21.0%
10% ← realistic here +17.9% 21% -28.5%
15% +6.5% 18% -35.4%
20% -3.9% 16% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +44% · $-wt -22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late +35% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$3 · ×1.4 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$1,145
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses300 / 756
Est. fees paid−$133
Open positions29
Markets (closed)1056 / 1017
History coverage48d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day48.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 1056 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Yes 67¢ 90¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+35%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 56¢ 56¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 46¢ 46¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Cabo Verde 27¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Under 26¢ 26¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? No 39¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 38¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 71¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$1 (+27%)
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 33¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals St. Louis Cardinals 42¢ 34¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-18%)
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 91¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+10%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? No 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
KBO: LG Twins vs. Samsung Lions Samsung Lions 44¢ 47¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Under 41¢ 44¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 41¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+128%)
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 41¢ 34¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-77%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 15? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-91%)
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? No 24¢ 24¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 16¢ 12¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-28%)
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-5%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-25%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-92%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Baltimore Orioles vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $0 +$1 +726%
NBA Playoffs: Rockets vs. Lakers Total Games O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $0 −$1 -466%
Minnesota Twins vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $0 −$1 -972%
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $0 +$3 +997%
Abidjan: Massimo Giunta vs Mert Alkaya Jun 14 $0 −$1 -490%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 14 $0 −$1 -1578%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Sabres vs. Bruins Jun 14 $0 −$1 -385%
Madrid Open: Dalma Galfi vs Anna Kalinskaya Jun 14 $0 +$1 +1712%
Counter-Strike: Sharks vs BIG (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Jun 14 $0 $0 -308%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Tyra Caterina Grant vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 14 $0 $0 +136%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Texas Rangers Jun 14 $0 $0 -350%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Jun 14 $1 $0 -89%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Valorant: Karmine Corp vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Jun 14 $0 $0 +5%
Madrid Open: Iga Swiatek vs Ann Li Jun 14 $0 $0 +134%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $0 $0 -152%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 14 $0 $0 +97%
LoL: paiN Gaming Academy vs 7REX (BO1) - Circuito Desafiante Regular S Jun 14 $0 $0 -341%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Jun 14 $0 $0 +148%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 14 $0 $0 -713%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Jun 14 $0 $0 -122%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Jun 14 $0 $0 -204%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO3) - Jun 14 $0 −$1 -1680%
BMW Open: Botic van de Zandschulp vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 14 $0 $0 -233%
Kraken vs. Avalanche Jun 14 $0 −$1 -250%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 23? Jun 14 $0 −$1 -2156%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins Jun 14 $0 $0 -47%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 14 $0 −$1 -618%
Houston Astros vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $0 $0 -311%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Jun 14 $0 −$1 -1200%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $0 +$2 +1646%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by April 30, 2026? Jun 14 $0 −$1 -672%
Washington Nationals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $0 +$3 +1358%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 +158%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $0 $0 -142%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-26? Jun 14 $0 $0 -17%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 14 $0 $0 -471%
Dota 2: Zero Tenacity vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $0 $0 +17%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs Heroic (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs Jun 14 $0 $0 -188%
Oeiras 3: Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 14 $0 −$4 -1406%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 14 $0 −$1 -552%
NHL Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Wild vs. Stars Jun 14 $0 −$2 -1100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 14 $0 $0 +214%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Nikola Bartunkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 14 $0 −$1 -812%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $0 $0 -188%
Barcelona Open: Alex de Minaur vs Hamad Medjedovic Jun 14 $0 −$1 -249%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 14 $0 +$1 +1367%
Dota 2: Aurora vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs Jun 14 $0 −$1 -423%
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $0 $0 -154%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL No 45¢ $3 7m
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY No 48¢ $3 15m
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 35m
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 38¢ $2 54m
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 1h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 44¢ $5 1h
Will Mark Tedford be the Republican nominee for OK-01? BUY Yes 43¢ $3 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 1h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 30¢ $2 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 2h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $3 2h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 38¢ $3 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 38¢ $3 2h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs BUY Team Liquid 29¢ $2 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $2 2h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Derrick Lewis 21¢ $1 2h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $4 2h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Iraq 39¢ $3 4h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 33¢ $2 4h
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 22¢ $2 4h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 4h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $4 4h
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 5h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 5h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $4 6h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 7h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.83 · official $38.05 (match) · 3500 history records