Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:26:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
73 0x7337…1faf sports 183 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7,243 (-25%) realized −$7,150 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate21%37W / 139L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$157per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$256est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,591now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days+$2,821
14 days+$3,629
30 days+$2,179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 89% −$9,863
other 10% +$1,913
crypto 1% −$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-42.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +63.0% +47.5% 25% 25% +514.9%
≤30d 72 -17.7% -25.6% 28% 28% +24.3%
≤90d 109 -22.2% -29.6% 26% 26% -8.7%
all 176 -36.8% -42.9% 21% 21% -37.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -42.9% 21% -37.9%
10% -48.3% 21% -43.8%
15% -53.3% 21% -49.2%
20% -57.9% 20% -54.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -54% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$303 vs −$138 · ×2.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$1,591
Realized−$7,150
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses37 / 139
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Est. fees paid−$256
Open positions7
Markets (closed)176 / 183
History coverage117d
Avg bet$157
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 176 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $564 $529 −$35 (-6%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $468 $431 −$37 (-8%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $244 $222 −$23 (-9%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $194 $172 −$22 (-11%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $97 $151 +$55 (+57%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $115 $86 −$29 (-25%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 136 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $38 −$37 -97%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 26 $7 −$7 -98%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals Jun 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $70 +$205 +294%
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 25 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 21 $333 +$2,700 +810%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $150 +$296 +197%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $200 −$196 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $164 −$160 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $203 +$161 +79%
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 18 $166 −$162 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $195 +$435 +223%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $150 −$147 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $101 +$146 +145%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $253 +$300 +118%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $25 −$24 -97%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $30 −$30 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $150 +$189 +126%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $241 +$103 +42%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $150 −$146 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $150 −$147 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $35 −$34 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $84 −$83 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $53 +$27 +50%
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -97%
Will FUT win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $16 −$15 -97%
Will B8 win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$4 +183%
Will 9z win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $19 −$19 -99%
Will Legacy win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will PARIVISION win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $40 −$39 -97%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $80 +$377 +473%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $129 −$127 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $36 −$35 -97%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $50 −$48 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $73 +$179 +246%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $30 +$43 +146%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $100 −$97 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 11 $120 −$118 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $124 +$180 +145%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $115 −$112 -98%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $199 −$195 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $97 −$95 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $50 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $200 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $199 7h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $100 7h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $22 33h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 33h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $80 33h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $81 33h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $7 36h
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $5 36h
Erling Haaland: 3+ goals BUY Yes 3¢ $5 36h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $174 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 25¢ $70 2d
Will Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $118 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $81 3d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 5d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $207 5d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 59¢ $583 6d
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $450 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $446 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 33¢ $150 8d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 25¢ $200 8d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 27¢ $164 9d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $363 9d
Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $166 10d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 55¢ $203 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,591.38 · official $1,591.38 (match) · 429 history records