Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:23:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7337…578a crypto 349 markets active 1h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$49 (-1%) realized −$49 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate97%339W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$17
14 days−$40
30 days−$60
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$31
other 9% −$32
finance 7% +$5
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -3.1% -12.3% 95% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 158 -2.3% -11.6% 96% 0% -11.2%
≤90d 349 -0.7% -10.1% 97% 0% -10.4%
all 349 -0.7% -10.1% 97% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -10.4%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.8%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$19 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$49
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses339 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)349 / 349
History coverage66d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 349 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET Jun 18 $49 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $49 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $29 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $50 +$1 +2%
BNB Up or Down on June 17? Jun 17 $17 +$2 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 17 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $16 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $50 +$2 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? Jun 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 16 $16 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $16 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $16 $0 +3%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $50 +$2 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6AM ET Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +3%
BNB Up or Down - June 13, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +5%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 12? Jun 12 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +1%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $16 $0 +2%
BNB Up or Down - June 12, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $49 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $49 6h
BNB Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 91¢ $17 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 97¢ $29 9h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 98¢ $50 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $30 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 99¢ $30 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 19h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 24h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $18 24h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $50 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $16 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 32h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $16 32h
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $16 33h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $29 33h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $29 33h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 2d
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
Solana Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 99¢ $50 3d
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 3d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 100¢ $16 3d
BNB Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.00 (match) · 1825 history records