Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:52:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x733c…c0a7 weather 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$489 (-25%) realized −$489 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate3%2W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$173
7 days−$497
14 days−$531
30 days−$531
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 97% −$527
world 3% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -30.2% -36.8% 0% 0% -34.8%
≤30d 60 -26.1% -33.2% 3% 0% -33.8%
≤90d 60 -26.1% -33.2% 3% 0% -33.8%
all 60 -26.1% -33.2% 3% 0% -33.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.2% 0% -33.8%
10% -39.6% 0% -40.1%
15% -45.4% 0% -45.9%
20% -50.8% 0% -51.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$489
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)3%
Wins / losses2 / 58
Open positions0
Markets (closed)60 / 60
History coverage10d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 60 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 28? Jun 26 $31 −$5 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 26? Jun 26 $30 −$3 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 26? Jun 26 $35 −$5 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 26? Jun 26 $23 −$13 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 26? Jun 26 $1 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 27? Jun 26 $25 −$5 -22%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? Jun 26 $28 −$3 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 27? Jun 26 $29 −$3 -12%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 27? Jun 26 $37 −$11 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27? Jun 26 $37 −$4 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 27? Jun 26 $33 −$5 -14%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 26? Jun 25 $24 −$21 -85%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 25 $23 −$2 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 26? Jun 25 $32 −$16 -48%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? Jun 25 $31 −$10 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 20°C on June 26? Jun 25 $2 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 26? Jun 25 $36 −$14 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on June 26? Jun 25 $19 −$5 -24%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on June 26? Jun 25 $37 −$16 -42%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 26? Jun 25 $7 −$4 -54%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 25? Jun 25 $41 −$12 -28%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 26? Jun 24 $12 −$9 -77%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 25? Jun 24 $25 −$9 -38%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 40°C on June 24? Jun 23 $43 −$2 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 22°C on June 24? Jun 23 $74 −$47 -63%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 23°C or below on June 24? Jun 23 $77 −$26 -33%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 24? Jun 23 $98 −$15 -16%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 24? Jun 23 $17 −$13 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on June 24? Jun 23 $93 −$22 -24%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Jun Jun 23 $84 −$68 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 38°C on June 23? Jun 22 $105 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 23°C on June 23? Jun 22 $39 −$31 -81%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 23? Jun 21 $18 −$6 -32%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 21? Jun 21 $11 −$7 -66%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 21 $54 −$21 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 22? Jun 21 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 21? Jun 21 $63 −$12 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on June 21? Jun 21 $56 −$5 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 21? Jun 21 $0 $0 -16%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 22? Jun 21 $42 −$16 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 21? Jun 21 $50 −$6 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 21? Jun 20 $74 −$5 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 22? Jun 20 $94 −$14 -14%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 20? Jun 19 $40 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 34°C on June 19? Jun 19 $4 $0 -2%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 19? Jun 18 $22 −$21 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 19? Jun 18 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 19? Jun 18 $22 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? Jun 18 $16 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 19? Jun 18 $15 −$2 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 28? SELL No 49¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 28? BUY No 57¢ $31 1h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 26? SELL No 50¢ $27 2h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 26? BUY No 54¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 26? SELL No 56¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 26? BUY No 64¢ $35 2h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 26? SELL No 20¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 26? BUY No 42¢ $23 4h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 26? SELL Yes 32¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 37°C on June 26? BUY Yes 35¢ $1 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 27? SELL No 36¢ $19 6h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 27? BUY No 45¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? SELL No 46¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on June 27? BUY No 50¢ $28 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 27? SELL No 47¢ $25 7h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 27? BUY No 52¢ $29 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 27? SELL No 50¢ $27 7h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 27? BUY No 68¢ $37 7h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27? SELL No 62¢ $33 8h
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on June 27? BUY No 68¢ $37 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 27? SELL No 53¢ $28 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 27? BUY No 60¢ $33 8h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 26? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 12h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 23°C on June 26? BUY Yes 44¢ $24 12h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 38¢ $20 14h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 41¢ $23 14h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 26? SELL No 32¢ $17 16h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 25°C on June 26? BUY No 59¢ $32 16h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? SELL No 40¢ $21 17h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on June 26? BUY No 57¢ $31 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 149 history records