Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:47:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x733d…cc26 crypto 320 markets active 0h ago coverage 32d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$614 (-1%) realized −$607 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%137W / 179L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day68.7pace
Fees−$301est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$306now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$196
7 days+$62
14 days−$1,026
30 days−$1,919
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 77% −$3,151
sports 18% +$1,919
weather 4% −$64
other 2% −$630
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -19.8% -27.4% 38% 38% -8.2%
≤30d 316 -0.7% -10.2% 43% 43% -11.4%
≤90d 316 -0.7% -10.2% 43% 43% -11.4%
all 316 -0.7% -10.2% 43% 43% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover68.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 43% -11.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 43% -19.9%
15% -26.6% 41% -27.6%
20% -33.8% 40% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +9% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$301 vs −$241 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$306
Realized−$607
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses137 / 179
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$301
Open positions4
Markets (closed)316 / 320
History coverage32d
Avg bet$287
Trades / day68.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 316 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 75¢ 75¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-0%)
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $64 $64 +$0 (+0%)
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? Yes 26¢ 21¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Will MrBeast say "Red Line" during his next YouTube video? No 28¢ 26¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 128 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 27 $199 +$105 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 27 $146 +$146 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 27 $204 −$200 -98%
Henan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $101 +$71 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $104 +$101 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$29 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 27 $220 +$173 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 27 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 27 $47 −$45 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 27 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 27 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $408 +$148 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $216 +$216 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 27 $207 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $110 −$110 -100%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 27 $52 −$52 -100%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 27 $202 +$97 +48%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $102 −$66 -65%
Will the announcers say "Corner" 10+ times during the Norway vs France Jun 26 $33 +$17 +50%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Uruguay vs Spain FIFA Wo Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $31 +$53 +172%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$10 +93%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 3 France? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 26 $282 +$263 +93%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $103 −$11 -10%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $103 −$50 -49%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $87 −$5 -5%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $154 −$31 -20%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $21 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 26 $67 −$65 -97%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $103 −$37 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $92 −$90 -97%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $139 +$42 +30%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $4 −$3 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $81 −$80 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 14 $576 −$576 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $312 −$300 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 14 $331 +$296 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 14 $302 +$289 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $104 +$113 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 14 $98 +$92 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $47 +$51 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $542 −$520 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $463 −$463 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $238 +$262 +110%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $304 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $199 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $45 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $75 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $109 1h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 75¢ $201 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 2h
Will MrBeast say "Red Line" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 28¢ $21 2h
Will MrBeast say "Subscriber" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 2h
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 3h
Henan FC vs. Shanghai Haigang FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $31 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $220 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $103 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $47 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $51 6h
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 32¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $101 7h
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 8h
Will MrBeast say "Feastables" during his next YouTube video? BUY Yes 32¢ $53 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $408 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $91 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $306.50 · official $306.89 (match) · 2375 history records