Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:09:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
73 0x733e…25b6 other 113 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$63 (+0%) realized +$63 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate16%18W / 95L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$349per market
Trades / day2.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$23
politics 32% −$15
sports 5% +$100
crypto 4% −$2
world 1% $0
tech 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 100 +4.1% -5.8% 12% 8% -9.4%
all 113 +3.5% -6.3% 16% 12% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 12% -9.4%
10% -15.3% 9% -18.1%
15% -23.5% 7% -26.0%
20% -31.0% 6% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$1 · ×7.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.51 per $1 lost it wins $1.51
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$63
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses18 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)113 / 113
History coverage112d
Avg bet$349
Trades / day2.3
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 113 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $398 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $296 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $282 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 13 $328 +$3 +1%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $649 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 06 $660 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? May 06 $53 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $614 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $268 −$1 -0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $278 $0 -0%
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 02 $274 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $326 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 01 $292 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $866 −$1 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio Apr 27 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $300 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $1,005 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 26 $316 $0 -0%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $272 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 24 $687 −$1 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 22 $393 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $333 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $92 $0 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $299 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $578 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,230 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $700 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $987 −$1 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $673 −$1 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $591 −$1 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Apr 19 $393 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 18 $402 $0 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $383 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $365 $0 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 16 $397 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $638 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $387 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $304 $0 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $314 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 13 $309 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $296 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $411 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 10 $649 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $36 1h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $36 4d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $53 5d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $53 8d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $296 14d
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $296 25d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $391 27d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $392 32d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $281 32d
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $282 35d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $328 41d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $301 41d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $301 42d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $313 42d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $313 42d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $300 42d
Will Daniel Mercuri win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 43d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $348 43d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $348 43d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $248 43d
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $248 44d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $335 45d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $335 45d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $268 45d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $268 45d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $278 46d
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $278 46d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $274 46d
Will Kyle Langford win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $274 46d
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $326 47d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 325 history records