Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:06:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7341…016d crypto 872 markets active 1h ago coverage 47d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 47d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$851 (-0%) realized −$851 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate63%558W / 327L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day57.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 47d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$4,691
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -74.0% -76.5% 24% 6% -64.7%
≤30d 332 -12.0% -20.4% 64% 23% -15.4%
≤90d 885 -7.0% -15.8% 63% 23% -12.1%
all 885 -7.0% -15.8% 63% 23% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.8% 23% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.9% 13% -20.5%
15% -31.2% 8% -28.2%
20% -38.0% 5% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
60% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$57 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

47d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$851
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses558 / 327
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)885 / 872
History coverage47d ⚠
Avg bet$234
Trades / day57.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 885 Trades
no open positions (114 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $208 −$208 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $194 −$194 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $297 −$297 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $60 −$60 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 18 $91 −$91 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 18 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 18 $187 +$13 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $182 +$18 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $175 +$25 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 27 $89 −$86 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 27 $175 −$172 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 27 $183 +$17 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET May 27 $194 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 27 $200 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 27 $194 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET May 27 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 27 $175 +$25 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 27 $83 −$81 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET May 27 $69 −$66 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 27 $300 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 27 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 27 $96 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 27 $168 +$32 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 27 $268 −$68 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 27 $99 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET May 27 $91 +$9 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET May 26 $200 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 26 $98 −$94 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 26 $196 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET May 26 $191 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 26 $193 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 26 $125 +$75 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 26 $193 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 26 $95 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 26 $84 +$16 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET May 26 $89 +$11 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 26 $100 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET May 26 $289 +$11 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET May 26 $99 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 26 $92 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 26 $273 +$27 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 26 $158 −$58 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $187 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $182 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $175 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $91 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $89 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $175 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $183 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $194 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $200 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $194 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $196 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $175 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $83 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $69 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $100 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $95 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $96 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $96 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $72 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $66 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $65 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $67 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $70 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $77 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $23 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $91 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $200 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $98 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records