Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T16:40:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7348…0a82 crypto 1022 markets active 1h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$216 (-4%) realized −$216 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%511W / 510L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$23
7 days−$92
14 days−$149
30 days−$145
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$257
sports 13% −$90
other 0% −$2
world 0% −$4
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 277 -3.2% -12.4% 51% 51% -17.3%
≤30d 624 -9.1% -17.8% 47% 47% -15.2%
≤90d 768 -9.5% -18.1% 47% 47% -21.0%
all 1021 -6.3% -15.2% 50% 48% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 48% -15.1%
10% -23.3% 45% -23.2%
15% -30.7% 41% -30.7%
20% -37.5% 36% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$216
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses511 / 510
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1021 / 1022
History coverage142d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1021 Trades
no open positions (168 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$22 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $22 −$21 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $12 +$11 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $7 +$10 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$3 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$5 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$6 +137%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $25 +$8 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $28 −$27 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $19 −$18 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$4 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $3 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $3 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2638 history records