Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T05:18:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7349…cc3a sports 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 6d only
✗ bot/MM pace (551 trades/day) — uncopyable
Total PnL +$17,902 (+11%) realized +$17,902 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate62%53W / 33L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$2,196per market
Trades / day551.0pace
Fees−$3,034est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% +$10,634
other 16% +$2,066
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (551 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+41.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +56.2% +41.3% 62% 31% -2.2%
≤30d 86 +56.2% +41.3% 62% 31% -2.2%
≤90d 86 +56.2% +41.3% 62% 31% -2.2%
all 86 +56.2% +41.3% 62% 31% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover551.0 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +41.3% 31% -2.2%
10% +27.8% 17% -11.6%
15% ← realistic here +15.5% 15% -20.1%
20% +4.1% 10% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
47% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +56% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$1,960) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +104% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
25.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$315 vs −$135 · ×2.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.75 per $1 lost it wins $3.75
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$17,902
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses53 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$3,034
Open positions0
Markets (closed)86 / 71
History coverage6d ⚠
Avg bet$2,196
Trades / day551.0
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 86 Trades
no open positions (24 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: United States 3 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 28 $2 $0 -1%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 28 $1 +$28 +4146%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 28 $118 −$118 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 28 $325 −$325 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 28 $10 +$15 +146%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $21 −$21 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $5 −$2 -35%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $0 +$1 +378%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $5 +$16 +316%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 28 $1 $0 +10%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 28 $0 $0 +466%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $1,960 −$83 -4%
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $4,837 +$64 +1%
Spread: Argentina (-3.5) Jun 28 $565 −$220 -39%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $8,985 +$252 +3%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $7,409 −$1,097 -15%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 28 $163 +$41 +25%
Exact Score: Colombia 1 - 0 Portugal? Jun 28 $4,761 +$435 +9%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $3,250 +$323 +10%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $17,788 +$390 +2%
Panama vs. England: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $1,620 −$9 -0%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 27 $68 +$73 +108%
Spread: Belgium (-3.5) Jun 27 $4,200 −$185 -4%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $1,133 +$96 +8%
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Jun 27 $4,425 −$335 -8%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $800 −$234 -29%
Uruguay vs. Spain: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $953 −$19 -2%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 27 $59 +$4 +8%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 26 $3,800 +$184 +5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $4,443 +$1,070 +24%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $734 +$289 +39%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 2 United States? Jun 26 $1,805 +$74 +4%
Türkiye vs. United States: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $2,762 +$43 +2%
Exact Score: Türkiye 2 - 3 United States? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $277 +$55 +20%
Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 26 $48 +$2 +4%
Japan vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 26 $1,938 +$402 +21%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 26 $177 −$4 -2%
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $986 +$6 +1%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $471 +$98 +21%
Spread: Germany (-2.5) Jun 25 $56 −$10 -18%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $9,762 −$907 -9%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 25 $104 +$17 +17%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 25 $1,416 +$2,680 +189%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $1,380 +$71 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 98¢ $400 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 98¢ $400 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 98¢ $400 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 99¢ $400 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 99¢ $400 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 99¢ $180 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 99¢ $315 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 99¢ $400 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 99¢ $400 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 99¢ $400 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 99¢ $400 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 99¢ $220 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 99¢ $85 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 99¢ $400 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Algeria 3 - 3 Austria? BUY Yes 85¢ $5 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 96¢ $301 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 97¢ $1,015 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 94¢ $283 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 94¢ $400 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 98¢ $27 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 96¢ $399 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 96¢ $400 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 96¢ $400 1h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 96¢ $747 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.06 · official $0.00 · 3500 history records