Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:27:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x734a…bc52 other 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL −$20 (-24%) realized +$8 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day17.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit31%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% +$26
sports 42% −$20
crypto 12% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)+33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +47.1% +33.1% 50% 25% +8.7%
≤30d 4 +47.1% +33.1% 50% 25% +8.7%
≤90d 4 +47.1% +33.1% 50% 25% +8.7%
all 4 +47.1% +33.1% 50% 25% +8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +33.1% 25% +8.7%
10% +20.4% 25% -1.7%
15% +8.7% 25% -11.2%
20% -1.9% 25% -19.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 99% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$12 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$8
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions12
Markets (closed)4 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit31%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Freedom 250: Weather Delay? No 14¢ 14¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-2%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 20¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? Yes 6¢ 7¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+7%)
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-4%)
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-14%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+2%)
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-99%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Under 56¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $8 +$32 +384%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $20 −$20 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? SELL Yes 100¢ $41 15m
UFC Freedom 250: Weather Delay? BUY No 14¢ $9 51m
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 0 Ecuador? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 2 Tunisia? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 3 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 2 Ecuador? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 3 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $6 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Japan O/U 0.5 BUY Under 56¢ $20 4h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.08 · official $35.85 (match) · 20 history records