Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:41:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
73 0x734a…0337 sports 125 markets active 1h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%122W / 3L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$6
14 days+$11
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$11
other 12% +$2
politics 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-7.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 +3.2% -6.6% 96% 2% -9.1%
≤30d 118 +2.2% -7.6% 97% 2% -8.8%
≤90d 125 +2.2% -7.5% 98% 2% -8.8%
all 125 +2.2% -7.5% 98% 2% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.5% 2% -8.8%
10% -16.4% 2% -17.5%
15% -24.5% 2% -25.5%
20% -31.9% 1% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×29.61 per $1 lost it wins $29.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses122 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)125 / 125
History coverage65d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 125 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wu vs. Djokovic: Set 3 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $29 $0 +0%
Yastremska vs. Ito: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 29 $18 $0 +0%
Yastremska vs. Ito: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 29 $10 $0 +0%
Bruno Guimarães: 3+ shots Jun 29 $28 $0 +1%
Cilic vs. Medvedev: Set 3 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $28 $0 +0%
Ravel vs. Sharipov: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $28 $0 +0%
Andreescu vs. Zhang: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 29 $28 $0 +0%
Rublev vs. Safiullin: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 29 $28 $0 +0%
Svrcina vs. Tien: Set 3 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $28 $0 +0%
Rublev vs. Safiullin: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 29 $28 $0 +0%
AS FAR to score first vs. UnionTouargaSports? Jun 29 $28 $0 +1%
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $2 +$3 +165%
Miguel/Santos vs. Rodriguez/Urrea: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $25 $0 +0%
Almeida vs. Villanueva: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 27 $25 $0 +0%
Shandong Taishan FC to score first vs. Liaoning Tieren FC? Jun 27 $25 $0 +0%
Silva vs. Wild: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $25 $0 +0%
Soto vs. Villanueva: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 26 $25 $0 +0%
Nagal vs. Cretu: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 26 $25 $0 +0%
Soto vs. Villanueva: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 26 $24 $0 +0%
Prashanth/Ramanathan vs. Latinovic/Vrbensky: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 26 $24 $0 +1%
Frantzen/Haase vs. Goransson/King: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Arribage/Olivetti vs. Pavlasek/Rikl: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 26 $19 $0 +0%
Fancutt/Rai vs. Dev/Sinha: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 26 $5 $0 +0%
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists Jun 25 $24 +$1 +3%
Ajdukovic/Kalender vs. Latinovic/Vrbensky: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 25 $24 $0 +0%
Cigarran vs. Taverna: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 25 $24 $0 +0%
Nagal vs. Ajdukovic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 25 $24 $0 +0%
Basing vs. Bertola: Match O/U 36.5 Jun 25 $24 $0 +0%
Dodin vs. Sawangkaew: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 25 $24 $0 +0%
Tarvet vs. Sakellaridis: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $24 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Constantin/Gima (-1.5) vs Loof/Uesugi (+1.5) Jun 25 $23 $0 +1%
Marcinko vs. Birrell: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $23 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Milev/Nesterov (-1.5) vs Jans/Visker (+1.5) Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Gasanova vs. Jones: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $18 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Moeller (-1.5) vs Balshaw (+1.5) Jun 24 $19 −$1 -3%
Set Handicap: Stoiana (-1.5) vs Sawangkaew (+1.5) Jun 24 $24 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Heide (-1.5) vs Mejia (+1.5) Jun 24 $24 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Andreeva (-1.5) vs Alexandrova (+1.5) Jun 24 $24 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Dev/Sinha vs Sueoka/Tajima Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Tanasie (-1.5) vs Balan (+1.5) Jun 24 $20 $0 +0%
Dietrich vs. Silva: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $4 $0 +0%
Yoane Wissa: 1+ shots Jun 24 $23 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Rubio (-1.5) vs Nedic (+1.5) Jun 23 $3 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Rutlauka (-1.5) vs Garcia (+1.5) Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Havlickova (-1.5) vs Carle (+1.5) Jun 23 $23 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Svitolina (-1.5) vs Samsonova (+1.5) Jun 23 $23 $0 -0%
Set Handicap: Sonmez (-1.5) vs Dart (+1.5) Jun 23 $23 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Siegemund (-1.5) vs Bejlek (+1.5) Jun 23 $17 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Zhao (-1.5) vs Mikulskyte (+1.5) Jun 23 $6 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Galfi (-1.5) vs Jorge (+1.5) Jun 23 $23 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wu vs. Djokovic: Set 3 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $29 1h
Yastremska vs. Ito: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 100¢ $10 2h
Yastremska vs. Ito: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $18 2h
Bruno Guimarães: 3+ shots BUY Yes 99¢ $28 4h
Cilic vs. Medvedev: Set 3 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $28 4h
Ravel vs. Sharipov: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $28 5h
Andreescu vs. Zhang: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $28 6h
Rublev vs. Safiullin: Match O/U 38.5 BUY Over 100¢ $28 8h
Svrcina vs. Tien: Set 3 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $28 9h
Rublev vs. Safiullin: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $28 10h
AS FAR to score first vs. UnionTouargaSports? BUY Yes 99¢ $28 28h
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 93¢ $5 32h
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 35¢ $2 32h
Miguel/Santos vs. Rodriguez/Urrea: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $25 2d
Almeida vs. Villanueva: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $25 2d
Shandong Taishan FC to score first vs. Liaoning Tieren FC? BUY Yes 100¢ $25 2d
Silva vs. Wild: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $25 3d
Soto vs. Villanueva: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $25 3d
Nagal vs. Cretu: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $25 3d
Soto vs. Villanueva: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $24 3d
Prashanth/Ramanathan vs. Latinovic/Vrbensky: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 99¢ $24 3d
Frantzen/Haase vs. Goransson/King: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 3d
Arribage/Olivetti vs. Pavlasek/Rikl: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $19 3d
Fancutt/Rai vs. Dev/Sinha: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 3d
Florian Wirtz: 1+ assists BUY Yes 97¢ $24 4d
Ajdukovic/Kalender vs. Latinovic/Vrbensky: Match O/U 22.5 BUY Over 100¢ $24 4d
Cigarran vs. Taverna: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $24 4d
Nagal vs. Ajdukovic: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $24 4d
Basing vs. Bertola: Match O/U 36.5 BUY Over 100¢ $24 4d
Dodin vs. Sawangkaew: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Over 100¢ $24 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 260 history records