Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T19:27:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
73 0x734b…bf61 crypto 390 markets active 1h ago coverage 51d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20 (+2%) realized +$21 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%108W / 271L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day8.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$23
14 days−$23
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$21
other 9% −$44
sports 1% +$8
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -82.0% -83.7% 6% 6% -89.6%
≤30d 123 -22.8% -30.2% 19% 19% -30.4%
≤90d 379 -11.9% -20.3% 28% 28% -18.0%
all 379 -11.9% -20.3% 28% 28% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.3% 28% -18.0%
10% -28.0% 26% -25.9%
15% -34.9% 24% -33.0%
20% -41.3% 22% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -30% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

51d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses108 / 271
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)379 / 390
History coverage51d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day8.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 379 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Yes 3¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+20%)
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-13%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-44%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +188%
BNB Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
HYPE Up or Down - May 29, 4PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 4PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 30 $5 +$2 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3PM ET May 29 $2 +$3 +124%
BNB Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 3PM ET May 29 $1 +$4 +374%
BNB Up or Down - May 29, 3PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 29, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 29 $1 +$7 +625%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 26, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 29 $1 +$2 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 29 $2 +$2 +73%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 7AM ET May 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 7AM ET May 29 $1 +$6 +529%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 20, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 21 $3 −$1 -25%
BNB Up or Down - May 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 21 $1 +$1 +129%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 20, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 21 $1 +$3 +296%
BNB Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - May 19, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 19, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET May 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 1.5 BUY Over 33¢ $1 25h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 26h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND BUY 20¢ $5 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 32¢ $11 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs TheMongolz (+1.5) BUY Natus Vincere 25¢ $1 2d
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 3d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 3, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $1 12d
HYPE Up or Down - May 29, 4PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 16d
HYPE Up or Down - May 29, 4PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 16d
Solana Up or Down - May 29, 4PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4PM ET BUY Down 14¢ $1 16d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 16d
BNB Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 16d
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 16d
BNB Up or Down - May 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 16d
XRP Up or Down - May 29, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.54 · official $12.54 · 879 history records