Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:45:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
73 0x734b…cede other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 85d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$1 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%11W / 14L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$629per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$63est.
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$149now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$72
7 days+$187
14 days+$228
30 days+$228
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 85% +$2,175
sports 15% −$2,535
crypto 0% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +20.5% +9.0% 50% 50% +17.0%
≤30d 16 +25.3% +13.3% 56% 56% +19.5%
≤90d 25 +9.9% -0.5% 44% 44% -11.3%
all 25 +9.9% -0.5% 44% 44% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 44% -11.3%
10% -10.0% 40% -19.8%
15% -18.7% 40% -27.5%
20% -26.7% 32% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 77% · top 2 97% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$1,135) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,087 vs −$878 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

85d coverage
Net worth$149
Realized−$1
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses11 / 14
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$63
Open positions3
Markets (closed)25 / 28
History coverage85d
Avg bet$629
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 25 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? Yes 48¢ 48¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $51 −$12 -24%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $31 +$80 +262%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $31 +$106 +344%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $81 +$44 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $71 +$37 +52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $43 +$55 +128%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $57 +$28 +50%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $103 +$19 +19%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $46 +$22 +48%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $27 +$19 +70%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $218 −$214 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3,002 −$2,957 -98%
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $1,000 −$989 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $2,085 −$2,043 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Apr 14 $2,583 −$2,522 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-10? Apr 10 $1,144 −$1,135 -99%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $2,077 +$9,167 +441%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $2,300 −$2,253 -98%
Will RCD Mallorca win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $2,331 +$2,380 +102%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $41 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 24h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $39 36h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $31 2d
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $51 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 100¢ $111 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $31 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes $21 4d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $81 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $71 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 5d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $43 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $85 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $57 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $35 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 61¢ $66 6d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $68 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $68 7d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $46 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $27 7d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 31¢ $218 30d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $3,002 35d
Will CA Osasuna win on 2026-05-02? SELL Yes $11 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $148.62 · official $148.62 (match) · 45 history records