Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T16:51:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
73 0x734e…edbd sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$145 (-11%) realized −$143 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$222per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$274
other 24% +$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -27.4% -34.4% 50% 50% -25.1%
≤30d 4 -27.4% -34.4% 50% 50% -25.1%
≤90d 4 -27.4% -34.4% 50% 50% -25.1%
all 4 -27.4% -34.4% 50% 50% -25.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.4% 50% -25.1%
10% -40.6% 50% -32.3%
15% -46.4% 50% -38.8%
20% -51.6% 25% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$112 vs −$189 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$143
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)4 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$222
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $315 +$117 +37%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $202 +$107 +53%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 25 $182 −$178 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $203 −$200 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) AND Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 BUY 49¢ $229 1h
Norway vs. France: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 42¢ $203 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 77¢ $432 13h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 55¢ $315 15h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 65¢ $202 17h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 29¢ $182 19h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 49¢ $203 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $197.62 · official $423.11 · 8 history records