Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:30:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
73 0x734f…285e crypto 106 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+4%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate78%83W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day19.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days+$3
14 days+$11
30 days+$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$6
other 4% +$18
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-0.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 92 +9.2% -1.2% 78% 48% -8.7%
≤30d 106 +10.4% -0.1% 78% 48% -7.0%
≤90d 106 +10.4% -0.1% 78% 48% -7.0%
all 106 +10.4% -0.1% 78% 48% -7.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.1% 48% -7.0%
10% -9.7% 32% -15.9%
15% -18.4% 16% -24.0%
20% -26.4% 9% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses83 / 23
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)106 / 106
History coverage7d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day19.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 106 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +33%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $8 +$4 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 16 $4 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +10%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $1 +$10 +980%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 −$4 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $2 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 9h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 88¢ $2 9h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $8 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $1 18h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 244 history records