Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:39:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7350…fe92 crypto 30 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$98 (-23%) realized −$106 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day12.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$75
sports 27% −$4
crypto 17% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-32.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -25.0% -32.1% 44% 37% -38.0%
≤30d 27 -25.0% -32.1% 44% 37% -38.0%
≤90d 27 -25.0% -32.1% 44% 37% -38.0%
all 27 -25.0% -32.1% 44% 37% -38.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.1% 37% -38.0%
10% -38.6% 33% -43.9%
15% -44.5% 26% -49.3%
20% -50.0% 19% -54.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -31% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -31% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$12 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.41 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$106
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 30
History coverage4d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day12.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 41¢ 59¢ $30 $43 +$13 (+44%)
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Over 78¢ 100¢ $30 $38 +$8 (+28%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 41¢ 23¢ $30 $17 −$13 (-44%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $10 +$5 +52%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $20 +$23 +115%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$25 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$7 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 22 $2 −$2 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 22 $3 −$1 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 22 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $26 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$2 +45%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $1 +$1 +118%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 47m
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $30 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 41¢ $31 1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY No 88¢ $33 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 100¢ $15 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $11 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 89¢ $10 2d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 65¢ $10 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 89¢ $22 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $76 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 57¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET SELL Down 28¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET SELL Down 69¢ $5 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.45 · official $98.45 (match) · 60 history records