Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:22:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7353…4b0d sports 204 markets active 2h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,436 (-5%) realized −$3,430 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate57%115W / 86L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$348per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$660est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$714now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$361
7 days+$53
14 days−$64
30 days−$1,432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 61% −$2,442
crypto 34% −$677
other 2% −$243
world 1% −$267
politics 1% −$210
tech 1% −$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +15.3% +4.3% 52% 52% -7.2%
≤30d 80 -4.3% -13.4% 54% 42% -16.8%
≤90d 201 -5.2% -14.2% 57% 31% -14.6%
all 201 -5.2% -14.2% 57% 31% -14.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 31% -14.6%
10% -22.4% 25% -22.8%
15% -29.9% 22% -30.3%
20% -36.8% 19% -37.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -6% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$118 vs −$204 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$714
Realized−$3,430
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses115 / 86
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$660
Open positions3
Markets (closed)201 / 204
History coverage63d
Avg bet$348
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $264 $262 −$2 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $228 $226 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Curaçao 57¢ 56¢ $228 $226 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $59 +$41 +69%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $32 −$4 -13%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $211 +$189 +90%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $239 +$161 +67%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $204 −$202 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $1,050 −$360 -34%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $626 −$186 -30%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $301 −$297 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $102 +$103 +101%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $115 +$85 +73%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $107 −$106 -99%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $191 −$150 -79%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $203 +$197 +97%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $203 +$97 +48%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $85 −$5 -6%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $119 +$181 +152%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $105 +$95 +90%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $29 +$71 +250%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $28 −$27 -98%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $219 +$181 +83%
Paraguay to score first vs. United States? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $124 −$122 -99%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $144 +$106 +73%
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 163.5 Jun 09 $203 −$146 -72%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 162.5 Jun 08 $203 −$200 -99%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 176.5 Jun 08 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $21 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $21 −$1 -7%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $20 −$3 -13%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 173.5 Jun 07 $102 +$111 +109%
Chicago Sky vs. Toronto Tempo: O/U 174.5 Jun 07 $102 +$98 +97%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 05 $1,076 −$1,060 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $1,048 −$1,038 -99%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $74 −$32 -44%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 173.5 Jun 05 $6 +$1 +24%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 172.5 Jun 05 $11 +$2 +16%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 174.5 Jun 05 $18 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 04 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$3 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 04 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 04 $100 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 04 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 04 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 04 $21 +$7 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $231 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $267 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $231 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 8h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $27 9h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $32 9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $55 9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 9h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 9h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 52¢ $211 24h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 59¢ $239 24h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY Australia 65¢ $204 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $660 41h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 43¢ $423 41h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $744 41h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $313 42h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $82 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $306 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $313 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $219 2d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $115 3d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 53¢ $107 3d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) SELL Austria 10¢ $41 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Iraq 15¢ $10 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $300 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $68 4d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 41¢ $81 4d
Spread: Austria (-1.5) BUY Austria 47¢ $191 4d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $713.92 · official $714.00 (match) · 535 history records