Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:30:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7353…b6c5 weather 1258 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,878 (-10%) realized −$1,881 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate73%993W / 371L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day19.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 98d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$427
weather 24% −$672
world 1% +$1
sports 0% −$5
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 472 -8.1% -16.9% 63% 17% -80.7%
≤30d 756 -4.7% -13.8% 76% 13% -66.4%
≤90d 986 -4.1% -13.3% 77% 29% -61.3%
all 1364 -2.7% -11.9% 73% 35% -35.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 35% -35.4%
10% -20.4% 18% -41.6%
15% -28.1% 3% -47.3%
20% -35.1% 2% -52.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -97% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -48% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$40 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$1,881
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses993 / 371
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions22
Markets (closed)1364 / 1258
History coverage98d ⚠
Avg bet$16
Trades / day19.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 1364 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? Yes 59¢ 100¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+69%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? Yes 58¢ 94¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+62%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? Yes 73¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+36%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? Yes 74¢ 100¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? Yes 80¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? Yes 84¢ 100¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Yes 95¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? Yes 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 76-77°F on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 16? No 99¢ 98¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? Yes 66¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? Yes 86¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 246 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$123 -15757%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$63 -2726%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 16 $119 −$119 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$327 -42443%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $134 −$134 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$318 -41050%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $242 −$242 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$410 -54916%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $75 −$75 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $90 −$90 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 16 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$118 -7629%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$147 -18985%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 19, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $142 −$142 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 16 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $573 −$573 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$78 -5039%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $246 −$246 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $122 −$122 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$44 +2074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$80 -3450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$272 -35243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 +$18 +1087%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $337 −$337 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 16 $252 −$252 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 22m
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 16? BUY No 99¢ $5 53m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 21°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 16? BUY Yes 94¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 28°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 16? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 16? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on June 16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on June 16? BUY Yes 98¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 21°C or higher on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 27°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 4h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 16? BUY Yes 73¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 12°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 7h
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 16? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C or below on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 16? BUY Yes 74¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 8h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on June 16? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $114.76 · official $113.22 · 3500 history records