Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:21:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7354…430f other 169 markets active 2h ago coverage 87d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$6,465 (+5%) realized +$6,672 · open −$207
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate81%132W / 30L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$741per market
Trades / day38.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit5%portable
Net worth$2,570now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 87d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% −$4,323
sports 0% −$62
world 0% +$10
crypto 0% +$42
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-5.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -4.3% -13.4% 67% 43% -18.5%
≤30d 69 -6.1% -15.0% 72% 33% -12.1%
≤90d 162 +4.9% -5.1% 81% 38% -12.6%
all 162 +4.9% -5.1% 81% 38% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.1% 38% -12.6%
10% -14.2% 12% -20.9%
15% ← realistic here -22.4% 9% -28.6%
20% -30.1% 6% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$858) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +13% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
12.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$604 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$2,570
Realized+$6,672
Unrealized−$207
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses132 / 30
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)162 / 169
History coverage87d ⚠
Avg bet$741
Trades / day38.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit5%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 162 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 97¢ 100¢ $977 $1,006 +$28 (+3%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? No 61¢ 48¢ $996 $793 −$203 (-20%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 79¢ 74¢ $315 $294 −$21 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? No 79¢ 76¢ $238 $229 −$8 (-4%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? No 91¢ 90¢ $91 $90 −$0 (-1%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 80¢ $80 $80 +$0 (+1%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? No 80¢ 76¢ $80 $76 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $847 +$39 +5%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $343 +$157 +46%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $474 +$26 +6%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $24 −$23 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $58 +$42 +73%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $8 −$8 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $16 −$16 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $1,348 +$67 +5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $310 +$14 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $78 +$22 +29%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $85 +$15 +17%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $80 +$20 +24%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $92 +$8 +8%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $9 +$41 +474%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $90 +$10 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 17 $379 +$40 +11%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $175 +$25 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $484 −$344 -71%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 15 $163 +$7 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $952 +$21 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $932 −$930 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $52 +$48 +93%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 15 $382 +$86 +22%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $127 +$73 +57%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $29 −$28 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $744 +$54 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $162 +$12 +7%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $28 −$27 -98%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $74 +$10 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 13 $164 +$8 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $722 −$496 -69%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 11 $290 +$14 +5%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 10 $82 +$8 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $1,246 −$70 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $58 +$4 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $83 +$6 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 06 $83 +$10 +12%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $5,043 −$233 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 05 $162 +$16 +10%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $1,215 +$254 +21%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 03 $87 −$58 -66%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $1,663 +$117 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 91¢ $91 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $47 3h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $49 4h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $90 4h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 9h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $7 10h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $99 10h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 47¢ $41 10h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $49 11h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $1 14h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $2 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $343 21h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $80 23h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $80 23h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $72 23h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $76 23h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $14 23h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $10 23h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $1 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $9 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $12 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $61 24h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 59¢ $22 24h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 95¢ $474 25h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $60 26h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 61¢ $124 26h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $24 27h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? BUY No 60¢ $60 30h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $9 30h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $29 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,569.96 · official $2,569.96 (match) · 3500 history records