Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:17:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7354…310d crypto 55 markets active 2h ago coverage 545d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-0%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate72%39W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% −$13
crypto 11% +$1
other 4% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 7 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 54 -0.3% -9.8% 72% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

545d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses39 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage545d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? Jun 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in April? May 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? May 05 $29 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? Apr 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 02 $21 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 02 $23 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? Mar 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? Mar 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? Feb 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? Jan 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? Jan 01 $36 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $230 in November? Dec 02 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Nov 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? Nov 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? Oct 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 01 $16 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $26 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? Aug 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in July? Aug 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? Jul 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 in May? Jun 08 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? May 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2600 in April? May 04 $6 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will ETH hard fork before May? May 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will Silviu Predoiu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 World Series? Apr 18 $25 $0 -0%
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio Apr 12 $41 $0 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.10 in March? Apr 03 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 again by March 31? Apr 03 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $4,093 −$4 -0%
Bitcoin above $99,000 on February 28? Mar 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Febru Mar 03 $13 $0 +2%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on February 28? Mar 03 $16 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $4,500 by January 31, 2025? Feb 06 $14 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $300 by January 31, 2025? Feb 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will the CDU/CSU win less than 20% of the vote in the German election? Jan 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 11 $32 $0 -0%
Will FDP win the most seats in the next German election? Jan 11 $40 $0 -0%
Will Heidi Reichinnek be the next Chancellor of Germany? Jan 11 $48 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 10 $42 $0 -0%
Will Lauri Markkanen lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 10 $39 $0 -0%
Will Girona win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 08 $27 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $45 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $15 29d
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? BUY No 100¢ $36 30d
Will BNB reach $900 in April? BUY No 100¢ $18 63d
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $29 63d
Will Solana dip to $50 in March? BUY No 100¢ $8 91d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $21 91d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $23 92d
Will XRP reach $3.20 in February? BUY No 100¢ $17 121d
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in February? BUY No 100¢ $32 123d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $3 148d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $15 149d
Will Solana dip to $40 in January? BUY No 100¢ $36 150d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in December? BUY No 100¢ $10 181d
Will XRP reach $3.50 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 182d
Will Solana reach $230 in November? BUY No 100¢ $38 212d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $6 241d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? BUY No 100¢ $15 241d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in October? BUY No 100¢ $29 243d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $13 272d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $23 273d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $16 302d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $26 303d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $8 333d
Will Solana dip to $140 in July? BUY No 100¢ $13 333d
Will Solana reach $250 in July? BUY No 100¢ $23 334d
Will Ethereum reach $3200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $13 365d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $13 393d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 394d
Will Solana reach $250 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 395d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.20 · official $45.20 (match) · 115 history records