Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T17:49:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7357…917d crypto 600 markets active 2h ago coverage 65d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$319 (-6%) realized −$283 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate46%277W / 319L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day31.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$270now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$45
7 days+$33
14 days+$10
30 days−$14
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 87% −$286
world 9% −$16
weather 2% −$35
tech 1% −$15
other 1% −$21
sports 0% +$2
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-25.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -11.8% -20.2% 49% 29% +5.3%
≤30d 125 -19.7% -27.4% 46% 36% -11.1%
≤90d 596 -17.1% -25.0% 46% 34% -15.7%
all 596 -17.1% -25.0% 46% 34% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.0% 34% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -32.2% 23% -23.8%
15% -38.8% 15% -31.2%
20% -44.8% 9% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

65d coverage
Net worth$270
Realized−$283
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses277 / 319
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)596 / 600
History coverage65d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day31.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 596 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? No 35¢ 31¢ $294 $258 −$36 (-12%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 19¢ $8 $9 +$1 (+13%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 40¢ 33¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 106 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 26 $97 +$45 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$4 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 22 $6 +$1 +21%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 22 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 +14%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 +13%
XRP Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 22 $6 −$3 -41%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$1 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 22 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$2 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$1 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 22 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $4 −$1 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 22 $3 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 22 $5 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $2 +$2 +148%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$2 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 21 $1 −$1 -95%
XRP Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$1 -21%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +14%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$1 +19%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +25%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Jun 16 $2 −$1 -60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 31¢ $6 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? BUY No 30¢ $33 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Down 20¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET SELL Up 33¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $1 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $1 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 45¢ $1 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 3d
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 12¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 42¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $269.97 · official $269.97 (match) · 2501 history records