Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:18:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7359…7df8 crypto 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$32 (-2%) realized −$32 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -36% what you keep after slip
Net edge-36%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%10W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day47.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$41
crypto 31% −$213
sports 8% −$109
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -16.4% -24.4% 25% 25% -26.3%
≤30d 40 -16.4% -24.4% 25% 25% -26.3%
≤90d 40 -16.4% -24.4% 25% 25% -26.3%
all 40 -16.4% -24.4% 25% 25% -26.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -24.4% 25% -26.3%
10% ← realistic here -31.6% 20% -33.3%
15% -38.2% 15% -39.8%
20% -44.3% 10% -45.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -40% → late +7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$16 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$32
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses10 / 30
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage2d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day47.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 18 $17 −$6 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $7 +$5 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$5 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $23 +$19 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$20 +374%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $11 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $162 −$8 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$15 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $31 −$10 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$24 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$2 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $30 +$5 +18%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $12 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$6 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $26 −$12 -45%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $31 −$3 -9%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 −$21 -42%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $86 −$85 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$1 -8%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $329 +$75 +23%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $31 −$23 -74%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $248 −$9 -4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $78 +$35 +46%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $19 +$8 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $7 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $10 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $18 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $11 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $6 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 29¢ $39 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $21 1h
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $52 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $58 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $20 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 112 history records