Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:13:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
73 0x735b…aad9 politics 138 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$58 (+0%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate15%20W / 117L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown53%max
Avg bet$208per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$14
politics 36% −$14
sports 10% +$84
economics 3% −$1
tech 2% −$1
crypto 2% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 17 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 89 -0.1% -9.6% 3% 0% -9.6%
all 137 +1.4% -8.3% 15% 9% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 9% -9.4%
10% -17.0% 8% -18.0%
15% -25.1% 4% -25.9%
20% -32.4% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$1 · ×8.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.54 per $1 lost it wins $1.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses20 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)137 / 138
History coverage129d
Avg bet$208
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown53%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 137 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $43 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $296 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $31 $0 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $38 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $268 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $227 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $399 $0 -0%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $461 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $246 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $859 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $402 $0 -0%
Will Han Dong-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 21 $196 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $248 $0 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $356 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $438 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $229 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $209 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 17 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 16 $203 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 15 $272 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 13 $256 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 13 $282 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 11 $282 $0 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $432 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $420 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago White Sox win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $264 −$1 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $497 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $245 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $855 −$1 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $236 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 04 $233 $0 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $223 $0 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $278 $0 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $247 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $652 −$1 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $295 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $202 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $409 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $288 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 21 $288 $0 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $166 $0 +0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election Apr 20 $47 $0 +0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $201 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 20 $169 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $209 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $44 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 3d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 3d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $43 4d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $43 5d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $36 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $45 7d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $45 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $33 9d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $33 11d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $31 11d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $31 13d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 17d
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $25 18d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $27 18d
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 18d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $38 19d
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $38 19d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $268 19d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $268 21d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $227 21d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $227 23d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $217 23d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $217 24d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $243 25d
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $243 25d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $246 25d
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $246 26d
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $222 26d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.98 · official $43.98 (match) · 421 history records