Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:35:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x735c…55ed sports 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 24d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$345 (+3%) realized +$696 · open −$351
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate67%22W / 11L
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$269per market
Trades / day20.7pace
Fees−$126est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$208
7 days−$319
14 days+$280
30 days+$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$605
other 24% +$132
crypto 7% +$404
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)+10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +36.6% +23.6% 60% 35% -15.4%
≤30d 33 +22.2% +10.6% 67% 39% -6.6%
≤90d 33 +22.2% +10.6% 67% 39% -6.6%
all 33 +22.2% +10.6% 67% 39% -6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.6% 39% -6.6%
10% ← realistic here -0.0% 30% -15.6%
15% -9.7% 18% -23.7%
20% -18.5% 18% -31.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$136 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$339
Realized+$696
Unrealized−$351
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses22 / 11
Est. fees paid−$126
Open positions4
Markets (closed)33 / 37
History coverage24d
Avg bet$269
Trades / day20.7
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 84¢ 100¢ $286 $339 +$53 (+18%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Under 13¢ 0¢ $102 $0 −$102 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 40¢ 0¢ $152 $0 −$152 (-100%)
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Under 60¢ 0¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $200 +$4 +2%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $76 −$76 -100%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $169 −$124 -73%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $14 +$164 +1180%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $258 +$9 +4%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $366 +$35 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $907 +$34 +4%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $403 −$5 -1%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $300 +$185 +62%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $81 +$19 +23%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $68 −$68 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $376 −$373 -99%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $251 −$250 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $300 +$19 +6%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $406 +$208 +51%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $125 +$13 +11%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 11 $279 +$75 +27%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $250 −$162 -65%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $84 +$10 +12%
Libema Open: Martin Damm vs Alex de Minaur Jun 10 $300 +$95 +32%
Will UD Almería win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $168 +$11 +6%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Mboko/Williams vs Melichar/Routliffe Jun 09 $300 −$300 -100%
Libema Open: Tamara Korpatsch vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 09 $101 +$19 +19%
Libema Open: Dayana Yastremska vs Sara Bejlek Jun 09 $150 +$88 +59%
Atlético Nacional vs. CDPJuniorFC: O/U 1.5 Jun 08 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $655 +$404 +62%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $1,298 +$70 +5%
Will Poland vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $85 +$1 +1%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $503 +$272 +54%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $159 +$36 +22%
Casper Ruud vs. Roman Safiullin: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $61 −$39 -65%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 25 $84 +$5 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $102 23m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 74¢ $100 23m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $102 24m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 75¢ $100 24m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 13¢ $103 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 12¢ $0 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 12¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 12¢ $1 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $25 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 41¢ $25 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $102 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $25 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $25 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 60¢ $101 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 90¢ $158 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 90¢ $90 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 90¢ $2 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 90¢ $7 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 90¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 90¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 90¢ $100 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 90¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 90¢ $15 1h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $653 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 94¢ $76 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 25¢ $34 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 31¢ $48 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 34¢ $56 15h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 34¢ $7 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $339.24 · official $339.24 (match) · 510 history records