Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T08:03:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

73 0x735f…00d0 world 4 markets active 0h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$20 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip

Net edge-9%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown73%max

Avg bet$415per market

Trades / day0.7pace

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$418now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 9d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-8.7%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	1	-0.1%	-9.6%	0%	0%	-9.6%
≤30d	3	+1.0%	-8.7%	33%	0%	-8.7%
≤90d	3	+1.0%	-8.7%	33%	0%	-8.7%
all	3	+1.0%	-8.7%	33%	0%	-8.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.7 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-8.7%	0%	-8.7%
10%	-17.4%	0%	-17.4%
15%	-25.4%	0%	-25.4%
20%	-32.7%	0%	-32.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% too few recent

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$21 vs −$5 · ×4.52 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.26 per $1 lost it wins $2.26

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$418

Realized+$20

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage9d

Avg bet$415

Trades / day0.7

Drawdown73%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?	No	89¢	89¢	$418	$418	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	Jun 22	$420	$0	-0%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland?	Jun 13	$409	+$21	+5%
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30?	Jun 13	$414	−$9	-2%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027?	BUY No	89¢	$418	18m
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	SELL No	93¢	$419	53m
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026?	BUY No	93¢	$420	2h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 0 Switzerland?	BUY No	95¢	$409	9d
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30?	SELL No	92¢	$405	9d
Israeli forces enter Tyre by June 30?	BUY No	94¢	$414	9d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $418.30 · official $418.30 (match) · 7 history records