Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:48:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

73 0x7362…17fa other 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 6d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$347 (+11%) realized +$347 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR60%break-even

Win rate60%3W / 2L

Drawdown46%max

Avg bet$465per market

Trades / day2.3pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit29%portable

Net worth$680now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +60%

net ROI/market (all)-4.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	+5.8%	-4.3%	60%	60%	+6.3%
≤30d	5	+5.8%	-4.3%	60%	60%	+6.3%
≤90d	5	+5.8%	-4.3%	60%	60%	+6.3%
all	5	+5.8%	-4.3%	60%	60%	+6.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.3 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-4.3%	60%	+6.3%
10%	-13.4%	60%	-3.9%
15%	-21.8%	40%	-13.2%
20%	-29.5%	20%	-21.7%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 49% · top 2 82% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +18% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +6% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$171 vs −$117 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×2.19 per $1 lost it wins $2.19

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage

Net worth$680

Realized+$347

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)60%

Wins / losses3 / 2

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 7

History coverage6d

Avg bet$465

Trades / day2.3

Drawdown46%

Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	Yes	66¢	66¢	$679	$680	+$0 (+0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	Jun 20	$202	−$34	-17%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	Jun 20	$1,175	−$200	-17%
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$726	+$248	+34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$204	+$94	+46%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	Jun 16	$260	+$169	+65%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	68¢	$171	1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	SELL Yes	53¢	$169	1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	66¢	$515	3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	21¢	$205	3h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	62¢	$202	3h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	SELL Yes	20¢	$925	4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND	BUY	1¢	$5	2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20?	BUY Yes	20¢	$970	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	78¢	$974	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$726	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL Yes	99¢	$298	3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	SELL Yes	94¢	$429	4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	67¢	$204	4d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?	BUY Yes	57¢	$260	6d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $679.61 · official $684.61 (match) · 14 history records