Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:00:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7367…b30b crypto 423 markets active 0h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR63%break-even
Win rate63%267W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day43.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$38
7 days+$8
14 days−$21
30 days−$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +63%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 321 +3.4% -6.4% 65% 65% -8.3%
≤30d 423 +0.2% -9.3% 63% 63% -11.0%
≤90d 423 +0.2% -9.3% 63% 63% -11.0%
all 423 +0.2% -9.3% 63% 63% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.3% 63% -11.0%
10% ← realistic here -18.0% 56% -19.6%
15% -25.9% 51% -27.3%
20% -33.2% 45% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses267 / 156
Open positions0
Markets (closed)423 / 423
History coverage10d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day43.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 423 Trades
no open positions (148 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $3 +$2 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$2 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$2 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$3 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 17 $3 +$3 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $2 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 714 history records