Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T20:07:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7371…cade other 356 markets active 2h ago coverage 230d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$581 (+1%) realized +$2,156 · open −$1,575
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate65%226W / 120L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$73est.
Kalshi-fit40%portable
Net worth$6,242now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$23
30 days+$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$3,049
sports 13% −$3,981
politics 11% −$1,161
world 4% +$183
finance 3% +$709
culture 2% −$408
tech 2% +$87
crypto 1% +$498
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+2.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 +14.9% +4.0% 60% 50% -6.0%
≤90d 150 +12.6% +1.9% 57% 45% -16.6%
all 346 +13.8% +2.9% 65% 48% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.9% 48% -9.0%
10% -6.9% 39% -17.7%
15% -15.9% 31% -25.7%
20% -24.2% 25% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +15% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$143 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

230d coverage
Net worth$6,242
Realized+$2,156
Unrealized−$1,575
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses226 / 120
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$73
Open positions10
Markets (closed)346 / 356
History coverage230d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 346 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $2,500 $3,982 +$1,482 (+59%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $2,500 $1,017 −$1,483 (-59%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $785 $692 −$92 (-12%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 70¢ 80¢ $100 $114 +$14 (+14%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 54¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 50¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? No 26¢ 24¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 39¢ 32¢ $50 $42 −$8 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$68 +134%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$58 +114%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 −$50 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai Jun 12 $101 +$37 +36%
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh Jun 12 $51 +$105 +206%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $2,886 +$114 +4%
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $101 +$3 +2%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $101 +$53 +52%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $101 +$60 +60%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $51 +$149 +291%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $31 +$269 +874%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $102 −$100 -98%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $909 −$909 -100%
UFC: Strickland and Chimaev to Touch Gloves? May 10 $4,894 −$4,894 -100%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 10 $118 +$82 +70%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $189 +$111 +59%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 10 $236 +$164 +70%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $41 −$40 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $129 +$71 +55%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 08 $487 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 08 $168 $0 +0%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? May 07 $356 +$6 +2%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 07 $581 +$15 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 07 $380 +$70 +18%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $202 +$137 +67%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 8, 2026? May 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 06 $99 −$44 -44%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 06 $189 −$104 -55%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 15, 2026? May 06 $74 +$12 +17%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 06 $280 +$80 +29%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 05 $827 +$136 +16%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 04 $236 −$236 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $203 +$175 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 03 $156 −$156 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $112 +$88 +79%
Will Valencia CF win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $45 +$55 +122%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $42 +$158 +376%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 02 $102 +$98 +96%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 02 $144 −$144 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Tim Elliott vs. Steve Erceg (Flyweight, Main Card) May 02 $74 −$74 -100%
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 20 May 02 $105 +$86 +82%
MegaETH FDV above $1.2B one day after launch? May 01 $6 +$4 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $100 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $101 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 26¢ $51 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $51 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 72¢ $101 9d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 11d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $51 11d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 11d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $50 11d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 12d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 12d
UFC Fight Night: Alonzo Menifield vs. Zhang Mingyang (Light Heavyweigh BUY Alonzo Menifield 32¢ $51 25d
UFC Fight Night: Kai Asakura vs. Cameron Smotherman (Bantamweight, Mai BUY Kai Asakura 73¢ $101 25d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 72¢ $103 31d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 62¢ $101 32d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 32d
Will Inter Miami CF win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 32d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 36¢ $102 32d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 32d
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 32d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 25¢ $51 32d
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 32d
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $102 32d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 32d
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) BUY Khamzat Chimaev 43¢ $509 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,242.25 · official $6,242.75 (match) · 2256 history records