Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T15:29:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
73 0x7373…ce1b other 48 markets active 2h ago coverage 45d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$82 (+1%) realized +$132 · open −$50
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%43W / 1L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$177per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$715now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$18
7 days+$32
14 days+$40
30 days+$72
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 40% +$25
crypto 29% +$4
tech 13% +$10
world 11% +$8
sports 4% −$22
politics 3% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +5.1% -4.9% 100% 17% -6.6%
≤30d 39 +1.6% -8.1% 97% 3% -8.3%
≤90d 44 +1.5% -8.2% 98% 2% -8.6%
all 44 +1.5% -8.2% 98% 2% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 2% -8.6%
10% -17.0% 0% -17.3%
15% -25.0% 0% -25.3%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$0 · ×2661.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×114436.8 per $1 lost it wins $114436.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

45d coverage
Net worth$715
Realized+$132
Unrealized−$50
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses43 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)44 / 48
History coverage45d
Avg bet$177
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? Jun 19 $84 +$16 +19%
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $257 +$2 +1%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $92 +$8 +9%
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $184 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, Jun 16 $290 +$6 +2%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on June 13? Jun 13 $95 $0 +0%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 12 $198 +$2 +1%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $250? Jun 12 $97 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 12? Jun 12 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 11? Jun 11 $189 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 10? Jun 10 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $206 +$4 +2%
Will Solana dip to $30 June 1-7? Jun 08 $100 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 June 1-7? Jun 08 $79 +$1 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of June 1 2026? Jun 05 $134 +$1 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading Jun 05 $40 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $9.00-$10 on the final day of trading of Jun 05 $38 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w Jun 05 $40 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading Jun 05 $40 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$130 on the final day of trading of the Jun 05 $39 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $2.00-$3.00 on the final day of trading Jun 05 $160 $0 +0%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $2.00? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $8.00? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$10 on the final day of trading of the Jun 05 $40 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $30? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 1 above $150? Jun 05 $5 $0 +1%
Will Ethena reach $0.20 in May? Jun 01 $200 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.70 May 25-31? Jun 01 $158 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in May? May 30 $199 +$6 +3%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (HIGH) $256 in May? May 30 $516 +$6 +1%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.70 Week of May 25 2026? May 29 $15 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 25 $743 +$2 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.50 Week of May 18 2026? May 22 $410 +$8 +2%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at >$9.00 on the final day of trading of th May 22 $54 +$1 +2%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $7.00-$8.00 on the final day of trading May 22 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading May 22 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading May 22 $67 +$1 +2%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of May 22 $93 +$1 +2%
US announces shutdown of Gaza military center by May 15? May 16 $717 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 13? May 13 $721 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.10 May 4-10? May 11 $299 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $1.80 on May 10? May 10 $423 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy post 200+ posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 08 $419 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 100¢ $220 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $0-$1.00 on the final day of trading of BUY No 100¢ $100 1h
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 22 above $3.00? BUY Yes 99¢ $198 1h
Will Netflix (NFLX) finish week of June 22 above $40? BUY Yes 99¢ $248 1h
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $259 42h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 92¢ $71 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 18? BUY No 84¢ $84 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 92¢ $7 3d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 92¢ $14 3d
Will Zelenskyy post 160-179 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $184 6d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from June 9 to June 16, BUY No 98¢ $290 6d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 99¢ $198 8d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.60 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $95 9d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $100 10d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of June 8 above $250? BUY No 100¢ $97 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $210 10d
Will GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $257 12d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.60 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $100 12d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $189 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $206 12d
Will Solana dip to $30 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $100 18d
Will Solana reach $150 June 1-7? BUY No 99¢ $79 18d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $2.00-$3.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 100¢ $160 18d
Will Ethena reach $0.20 in May? BUY No 100¢ $200 21d
Will XRP reach $1.70 May 25-31? BUY No 100¢ $158 21d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.60 Week of June 1 2026? BUY No 99¢ $134 21d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at >$130 on the final day of trading of the BUY No 99¢ $39 21d
Will Netflix (NFLX) close at <$40 on the final day of trading of the w BUY No 99¢ $40 21d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $8.00-$9.00 on the final day of trading BUY No 99¢ $40 21d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of June 1 above $2.00? BUY Yes 99¢ $5 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $714.63 · official $724.04 · 107 history records