Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:17:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
73 0x7374…7145 sports 96 markets active 5d ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$51 (+13%) realized +$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%48W / 48L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$48
sports 28% +$1
crypto 5% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -8.8% -17.5% 38% 38% -24.7%
≤30d 14 -21.1% -28.6% 36% 29% -55.3%
≤90d 96 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 49% +1.1%
all 96 -3.6% -12.8% 50% 49% +1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 49% +1.1%
10% -21.1% 45% -8.6%
15% -28.7% 41% -17.4%
20% -35.7% 35% -25.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses48 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)96 / 96
History coverage134d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 96 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 $0 -9%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$3 +113%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +42%
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals Jun 11 $1 +$1 +146%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $16 −$15 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 20 $1 $0 +1%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $2 +$2 +140%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 May 20 $2 −$2 -66%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? May 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 13 $2 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET May 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 13 $2 +$2 +76%
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-03? May 03 $3 −$3 -99%
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CF Pachuca: Both Teams to Score May 03 $5 −$5 -99%
CF América vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Both Teams to Score May 03 $3 +$3 +82%
Atlas FC vs. CF Cruz Azul: Both Teams to Score May 03 $2 +$2 +114%
Tigres de la UANL vs. CD Guadalajara: O/U 3.5 May 03 $1 +$1 +134%
Tigres de la UANL vs. CD Guadalajara: Both Teams to Score May 03 $2 +$2 +89%
Will CD Guadalajara win on 2026-05-02? May 03 $2 −$2 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $2 +$1 +34%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $4 +$3 +73%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 30 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the Boston Celtics win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Apr 30 $2 $0 -14%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) Apr 29 $2 +$2 +101%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Score Apr 29 $2 +$1 +42%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 29 $1 +$1 +119%
Hornets vs. Magic Apr 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 28 $4 $0 +12%
Warriors vs. Clippers Apr 16 $3 +$6 +196%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $2 +$1 +52%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $10 +$8 +79%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $36 +$56 +156%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Lakers vs. Warriors Apr 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $40 +$12 +29%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 10 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $15 +$12 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 29¢ $1 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $1 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 34¢ $0 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 31¢ $1 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 23¢ $2 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $3 7d
Raúl Jiménez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 40¢ $1 7d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 38¢ $16 19d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $1 28d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 28d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 32¢ $3 28d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 41¢ $2 29d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 SELL Over 19¢ $1 29d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 29d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 54¢ $2 29d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 46¢ $2 36d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons SELL Pistons 61¢ $2 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 36d
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-13? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 36d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 36d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Pistons 62¢ $2 36d
Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 51¢ $6 45d
Will Pumas de la UNAM win on 2026-05-03? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 45d
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CF Pachuca: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $5 45d
CF América vs. Pumas de la UNAM: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $6 45d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 196 history records