Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:19:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
73 0x737d…6ac4 crypto 43 markets active 0h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$116 (+17%) realized +$114 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate60%25W / 17L
Drawdown52%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$57
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$56
other 5% +$27
politics 3% +$2
tech 1% +$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +13.8% +2.9% 57% 50% -0.9%
≤30d 29 +14.0% +3.2% 59% 52% -0.8%
≤90d 30 +33.3% +20.6% 60% 53% +3.5%
all 42 +17.6% +6.4% 60% 50% +2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.4% 50% +2.0%
10% -3.8% 36% -7.8%
15% -13.1% 26% -16.7%
20% -21.6% 24% -24.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +31% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$10 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized+$114
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses25 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage153d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? No 82¢ 94¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$8 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 23 $76 +$13 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 23 $25 +$8 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 23 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 23 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $26 +$34 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 23 $36 +$18 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 23 $47 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$25 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 22 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 22 $1 +$1 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 22 $41 +$24 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$9 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 22 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 22 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 22 $5 −$4 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 22 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 22 $5 +$36 +685%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Artemis II launch by March 31? Apr 01 $5 +$30 +592%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Mar 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Artemis II launch by February 28? Mar 01 $5 +$8 +158%
Will the government shutdown last 3 days or more? Jan 28 $5 +$1 +16%
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? Jan 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend? Jan 26 $14 +$2 +15%
Will there be 15 or more inches of snow in D.C. this weekend? Jan 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will there be 13-15 inches of snow in D.C. this weekend? Jan 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" or "Israel" or "Gaza" 7+ times during the Board Jan 22 $1 $0 +25%
Will Trump say "Historic" during the Board of Peace Charter Announceme Jan 22 $1 $0 +25%
Internet access restored in Iran by Friday? Jan 22 $4 $0 +3%
Will Zelenskyy attend the World Economic Forum? Jan 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump say "Boeing" during WEF Address on January 21? Jan 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $25 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $25 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $22 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $21 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Up 18¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $20 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $20 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.51 · official $11.51 (match) · 101 history records