Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:30:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7380…9019 sports 36 markets active 2h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$152 (-5%) realized −$175 · open +$23
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$79per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$1,031now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$38
14 days+$83
30 days−$187
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 99% −$138
other 1% −$16
world 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-29.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -22.7% -30.0% 42% 42% -19.0%
≤30d 28 -21.9% -29.3% 39% 39% -18.8%
≤90d 28 -21.9% -29.3% 39% 39% -18.8%
all 28 -21.9% -29.3% 39% 39% -18.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.3% 39% -18.8%
10% -36.1% 32% -26.5%
15% -42.3% 29% -33.6%
20% -47.9% 18% -40.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$37 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$1,031
Realized−$175
Unrealized+$23
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions8
Markets (closed)28 / 36
History coverage22d
Avg bet$79
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, Main Card) Michal Oleksiejczuk 49¢ 52¢ $297 $313 +$15 (+5%)
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) Max Holloway 69¢ 65¢ $326 $307 −$19 (-6%)
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavyweight, Prelims) Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 78¢ 82¢ $153 $161 +$8 (+5%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Karmine Corp 86¢ 88¢ $92 $94 +$3 (+3%)
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Monte 61¢ 62¢ $59 $59 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: 9z vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage EYEBALLERS 30¢ 29¢ $52 $50 −$2 (-5%)
Zuffa Boxing 8: Sandoval vs. Lee (Welterweight, Main) Sandoval 25¢ 44¢ $24 $42 +$18 (+74%)
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Sinners (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage BetBoom Team 73¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW (BO3) - European Pro Leagu Jun 27 $6 +$3 +62%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $15 +$25 +158%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $16 −$16 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham Jun 25 $11 +$1 +13%
Counter-Strike: DEPO vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament Jun 25 $51 +$80 +158%
Valorant: QoR vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 25 $95 +$34 +36%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North Jun 24 $57 −$56 -98%
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q Jun 23 $38 −$37 -97%
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A Jun 22 $50 −$49 -98%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ Jun 21 $12 −$12 -99%
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International Jun 16 $34 −$33 -97%
Counter-Strike: ReThink vs Wingman (BO3) - ESEA Advanced Europe Playof Jun 15 $51 +$61 +119%
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $402 +$92 +23%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 14 $43 +$7 +17%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 4 Group Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
HSBC Championships: Mika Stojsavljevic vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 10 $196 −$78 -40%
Cattolica: Alvaro Guillen Meza vs Ilia Simakin Jun 09 $68 +$42 +62%
LoL: Karmine Corp Blue vs Partizan Sangal (BO1) - EMEA Masters Swiss S Jun 08 $69 +$35 +50%
Bahrain vs. Syria: O/U 2.5 Jun 08 $101 −$5 -5%
Cattolica: Liam Broady vs Alexander Vasilev Jun 07 $3 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Pla Jun 06 $116 +$56 +48%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 06 $73 −$8 -11%
Counter-Strike: NEW VISION vs Leo Team (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Quali Jun 06 $92 −$90 -98%
JEF United Ichihara Chiba vs. Avispa Fukuoka: Both Teams to Score Jun 05 $205 −$202 -99%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs RED Canids Academy (BO3) - Gamers Jun 05 $9 −$9 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: 9z vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage BUY EYEBALLERS 30¢ $33 1h
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Team Nemesis (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Sta BUY Monte 61¢ $59 1h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Academy vs SAW (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Inner Circle Academy 61¢ $6 9h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 21h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $15 21h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $16 21h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs EYEBALLERS (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage BUY EYEBALLERS 31¢ $20 22h
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham SELL Vasco Esports 45¢ $12 43h
UFC Fight Night: Abus Magomedov vs. Michal Oleksiejczuk (Middleweight, BUY Michal Oleksiejczuk 49¢ $302 2d
Counter-Strike: Vasco Esports vs Isurus (BO3) - Thunderpick World Cham BUY Vasco Esports 39¢ $11 2d
Valorant: QoR vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group BUY QoR 73¢ $95 2d
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs Alliance Guardians (BO3) - VCL North BUY Alliance Guardians 27¢ $57 2d
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 78¢ $104 3d
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Enjoy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Q BUY Enjoy $38 3d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 86¢ $82 3d
Counter-Strike: DEPO vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament BUY WRAITH PCIFIC 38¢ $8 4d
Dota 2: Execration vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast A BUY Execration 41¢ $50 4d
UFC Fight Night: Julius Walker vs. Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev (Light Heavy BUY Abdul-Rakhman Yakhyaev 79¢ $50 5d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Karmine Corp 86¢ $10 5d
Counter-Strike: DEPO vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - LG UltraGear Tournament BUY WRAITH PCIFIC 38¢ $43 5d
Zuffa Boxing 8: Sandoval vs. Lee (Welterweight, Main) BUY Sandoval 25¢ $25 5d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 34¢ $2 5d
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Yawara Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick World Champ BUY Yawara Esports 55¢ $12 5d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Sinners (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group S BUY BetBoom Team 73¢ $5 6d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria $3 10d
Dota 2: GamerLegion vs 4 Anchors and Ilmeria (BO3) - The International BUY 4 Anchors and Ilmeria 10¢ $31 10d
Counter-Strike: paiN Academy vs ODDIK (BO1) - Gamers Club Liga Série A BUY paiN Academy 35¢ $6 11d
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Mauricio Ruffy 81¢ $402 12d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 69¢ $127 13d
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card) BUY Max Holloway 69¢ $202 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,030.58 · official $1,030.58 (match) · 60 history records