Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:06:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7382…2c67 sports 19 markets active 15h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7 (-6%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%2W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$3
other 40% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-47.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -41.5% -47.1% 20% 20% -22.9%
≤30d 10 -41.5% -47.1% 20% 20% -22.9%
≤90d 10 -41.5% -47.1% 20% 20% -22.9%
all 10 -41.5% -47.1% 20% 20% -22.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -47.1% 20% -22.9%
10% -52.1% 20% -30.3%
15% -56.8% 20% -37.0%
20% -61.0% 20% -43.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -42% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$4 · ×3.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses2 / 8
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)10 / 19
History coverage5d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 10 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $5 +$7 +139%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $7 −$7 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -12%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $10 +$16 +158%
Diego Gómez: 1+ goals Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 14h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 18h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 0¢ $1 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 BUY 30¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Spain 35¢ $5 3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 34¢ $7 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 23¢ $5 4d
Spread: Germany (-3.5) AND Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 AND Spre BUY 13¢ $5 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 6¢ $1 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY 39¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 AND Haiti v BUY 29¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 22¢ $4 5d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) AND Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY 45¢ $5 5d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 5d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 AND Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY 39¢ $5 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $26 5d
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 AND Will S BUY 23¢ $10 5d
Diego Gómez: 1+ goals BUY Yes 14¢ $5 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $10 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 22 history records