Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:27:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
73 0x7382…0487 crypto 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 551d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$212 (+2%) realized +$213 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate90%55W / 6L
Drawdown5%max
Avg bet$197per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$495now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 34% +$25
other 34% +$76
politics 16% +$32
tech 8% +$9
economics 4% $0
world 2% +$69
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -0.7% -10.1% 86% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 15 -0.2% -9.7% 93% 0% -9.4%
all 61 +1.4% -8.3% 90% 5% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.3% 5% -7.9%
10% -17.1% 3% -16.7%
15% -25.1% 2% -24.8%
20% -32.4% 2% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×12.2 per $1 lost it wins $12.2
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

551d coverage
Net worth$495
Realized+$213
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses55 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)61 / 64
History coverage551d
Avg bet$197
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown5%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $170 $170 −$0 (-0%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $166 $167 +$1 (+1%)
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In T1 95¢ 94¢ $160 $157 −$3 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $650 +$3 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 02 $125 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $50 −$4 -7%
Will BNB reach $1,100 in May? Jun 01 $132 $0 +0%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 01 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May May 30 $176 $0 +0%
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 29 $150 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr May 07 $175 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April May 07 $200 $0 +0%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 07 $200 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 10 to Apr Apr 23 $65 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April Apr 23 $200 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 1 Apr 15 $520 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Apr 07 $180 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 10 to Mar Apr 07 $265 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 1 Mar 16 $224 +$3 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 11 $323 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 07 $105 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? Mar 07 $420 +$4 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Feb 09 $200 +$2 +1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $25 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 19-25? Feb 02 $80 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in January? Feb 02 $330 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 16 $30 +$4 +12%
Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 16 $50 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $400 before 2026? Jan 16 $200 +$1 +0%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 16 $270 +$8 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 202 Dec 14 $355 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025? Dec 11 $160 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in November? Dec 11 $185 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Dec 11 $188 +$1 +1%
Will Solana reach $350 in October? Nov 11 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from October 10 to October 17, 2025? Nov 11 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,900 and $5,000 on October 14? Nov 11 $120 $0 +0%
Will Moonshot have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 11 $300 $0 +0%
Xi Jinping out before October? Oct 13 $20 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 in September? Oct 13 $52 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from September 9 to September 16, 2 Oct 13 $450 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times August 15–August 22? Sep 15 $200 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6500 in August? Sep 15 $300 +$5 +2%
Will Elon tweet 240–269 times August 8–August 15? Aug 19 $550 +$2 +0%
Will Elon tweet less than 90 times July 11–18? Aug 11 $150 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July? Aug 11 $377 +$2 +1%
Dogecoin all time high by June 30? Jul 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will China unban Bitcoin by June 30? Jul 13 $63 +$2 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Jul 13 $278 +$2 +1%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 9–16? Jun 14 $25 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 14 $185 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 14 $215 +$1 +0%
Will SOL flip ETH before May? May 11 $210 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $170 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY T1 95¢ $160 3d
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $166 20d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $300 20d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $352 20d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $350 20d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $126 20d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $46 20d
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $125 20d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $50 20d
Will CZ post 120-139 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $150 47d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $120 47d
Will BNB reach $1,100 in May? BUY No 100¢ $132 47d
Will Broadcom be the largest company in the world by market cap on May BUY No 100¢ $176 47d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $200 61d
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 21 to April BUY No 100¢ $200 61d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Apr BUY No 100¢ $175 68d
Will Donald Trump post 40-59 Truth Social posts from April 14 to April BUY No 100¢ $200 68d
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from April 10 to Apr BUY No 99¢ $65 68d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 3 to April 1 BUY No 100¢ $520 76d
Will Donald Trump post 180-199 Truth Social posts from March 10 to Mar BUY No 100¢ $265 98d
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from March 6 to March 1 BUY No 99¢ $224 103d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $323 108d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $180 108d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $105 134d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $101 134d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? BUY No 99¢ $420 140d
Will Bitcoin reach $106,000 January 19-25? BUY No 100¢ $80 150d
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $101 150d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 99¢ $25 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $494.65 · official $494.65 (match) · 128 history records