Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T00:06:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7385…0199 sports 137 markets active 1h ago coverage 44d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
Total PnL −$1,054 (-8%) realized −$1,158 · open −$187
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate57%76W / 58L
Whale WR40%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$103est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$205now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$126
7 days−$781
14 days−$1,427
30 days−$1,314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 71% −$912
crypto 21% −$624
other 9% +$186
world 0% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-5.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -23.4% -30.7% 42% 37% -33.3%
≤30d 75 -10.7% -19.2% 51% 48% -22.0%
≤90d 134 +4.3% -5.6% 57% 54% -18.1%
all 134 +4.3% -5.6% 57% 54% -18.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.6% 54% -18.1%
10% -14.7% 49% -25.9%
15% -22.9% 45% -33.1%
20% -30.5% 40% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 40% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$62 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

44d coverage
Net worth$205
Realized−$1,158
Unrealized−$187
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses76 / 58
Whale WR (big bets)40%
Est. fees paid−$103
Open positions3
Markets (closed)134 / 137
History coverage44d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 134 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Yes 38¢ 34¢ $145 $128 −$17 (-12%)
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Yes 56¢ 92¢ $47 $77 +$30 (+63%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 76¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Feyenoord Rotterdam vs. AZ: Both Teams to Score No 37¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Yes 52¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Down 46¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven Rico 49¢ $200 $0 −$200 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Spurs 66¢ $173 $0 −$173 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 33¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Matteo Berrettini 63¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Down 54¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Thunder vs. Spurs Thunder 41¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Jalen Williams: Points O/U 16.5 Yes 62¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Up 31¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 Yes 62¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano Carano 18¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? Yes 64¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Yes 44¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5 Yes 63¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Victor Wembanyama: Rebounds O/U 13.5 Yes 59¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
James Harden: Points O/U 18.5 Yes 58¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Yes 59¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Cavaliers vs. Pistons Pistons 63¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Joel Embiid: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Yes 43¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 37¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $49 −$4 -8%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $201 +$31 +16%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $346 −$146 -42%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$57 +57%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$44 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $10 +$9 +92%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $221 +$183 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $403 −$403 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $413 −$82 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $121 −$3 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $272 +$22 +8%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $486 −$345 -71%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $201 +$27 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 06 $121 +$14 +12%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 Jun 06 $10 +$7 +74%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 26.5 Jun 06 $25 +$20 +80%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 10.5 Jun 06 $20 +$15 +76%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $678 −$671 -99%
Stephon Castle: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -99%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 Jun 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 05 $101 +$24 +24%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $545 −$13 -2%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $25 +$22 +86%
Roland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 03 $51 −$50 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 31 $101 +$33 +32%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Points O/U 29.5 May 31 $15 +$11 +73%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $552 +$6 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $51 −$21 -42%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $153 −$150 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $202 +$137 +67%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Points O/U 16.5 May 26 $5 +$4 +73%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 May 26 $6 +$5 +82%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $304 +$213 +70%
Stephon Castle: Points O/U 16.5 May 24 $10 −$10 -99%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 13.5 May 24 $20 −$20 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $658 −$282 -43%
Karl-Anthony Towns: Rebounds O/U 11.5 May 23 $20 −$20 -99%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 23 $303 −$200 -66%
Colorado Rockies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks May 23 $50 −$39 -77%
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 23 $101 +$74 +73%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 4.5 May 23 $15 +$13 +82%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $258 −$56 -22%
De'Aaron Fox: Points O/U 14.5 May 23 $5 +$5 +105%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 24.5 May 23 $20 −$7 -34%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $48 52m
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $148 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 28¢ $46 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $232 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 86¢ $201 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $101 2h
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $51 2h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 75¢ $101 2h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 56¢ $15 19h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $326 20h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 20h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 54¢ $97 20h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 67¢ $101 20h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 61¢ $101 23h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $47 23h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 23h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $145 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $10 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $221 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $105 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $202 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $202 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $102 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $205.43 · official $205.43 (match) · 305 history records