Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:58:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

5.0
score
73 0x738a…5996 world 340 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,297 (+22%) realized +$2,276 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate58%174W / 125L
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1,140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days+$181
14 days+$234
30 days+$1,582
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% +$903
other 26% +$327
politics 8% +$83
crypto 2% +$189
tech 2% +$879
finance 1% +$20
sports 1% −$16
culture 0% −$9
economics 0% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)+17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 68 -23.6% -30.8% 26% 25% -2.2%
≤30d 122 +9.3% -1.1% 39% 34% +22.9%
≤90d 298 +29.4% +17.1% 58% 49% +14.8%
all 299 +29.4% +17.1% 58% 49% +14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +17.1% 49% +14.8%
10% +5.9% 38% +3.8%
15% -4.4% 28% -6.2%
20% -13.7% 21% -15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +32% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$9 · ×2.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.17 per $1 lost it wins $3.17
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$1,140
Realized+$2,276
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses174 / 125
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions41
Markets (closed)299 / 340
History coverage97d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 41 History 299 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? Yes 60¢ 100¢ $125 $209 +$84 (+67%)
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? No 57¢ 92¢ $114 $182 +$69 (+61%)
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 75¢ 92¢ $90 $110 +$20 (+23%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 93¢ 94¢ $93 $94 +$1 (+1%)
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? No 62¢ 72¢ $62 $72 +$10 (+17%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $74 $63 −$11 (-14%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $30 $44 +$14 (+47%)
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $23 $35 +$12 (+51%)
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 9¢ 17¢ $14 $25 +$12 (+88%)
Will France send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ 14¢ $16 $23 +$7 (+41%)
FDA approves Arcutis' Zoryve cream? Yes 69¢ 91¢ $17 $22 +$5 (+32%)
World Cup: Ronaldo to Score 2+ Penalties? No 50¢ 73¢ $15 $22 +$7 (+46%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $23 $19 −$4 (-18%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 22, 2026? Yes 72¢ 16¢ $84 $19 −$65 (-78%)
Will New Zealand finish last in Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 30¢ 43¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+43%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-22%)
Will Portugal be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 66¢ 76¢ $13 $15 +$2 (+16%)
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? No 67¢ 74¢ $13 $15 +$1 (+10%)
Will USD reach 19,000 Indonesian rupiah by June 30? No 65¢ 77¢ $10 $11 +$2 (+18%)
World Cup: Scoreless Team? No 30¢ 28¢ $12 $11 −$1 (-8%)
FDA approves Arcalyst technology transfer? Yes 74¢ 54¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 13¢ 8¢ $17 $10 −$6 (-38%)
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in June? Yes 39¢ 23¢ $17 $10 −$7 (-41%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+3%)
Will Julio Enciso score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $12 $9 −$2 (-21%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $138 +$17 +13%
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 18 $134 −$3 -2%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $26 −$10 -37%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -98%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 17 $3 +$4 +128%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 17 $21 +$26 +126%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 17 $26 −$4 -14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $308 −$25 -8%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $148 −$52 -35%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $8 +$6 +73%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 16 $19 −$7 -38%
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 16 $8 $0 -6%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 16 $74 +$23 +31%
FDA approves Merck's Welireg + Keytruda or Keytruda Qlex? Jun 16 $22 +$8 +36%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $15 −$4 -26%
President Trump to Attend USA Opening Match? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in May? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? Jun 15 $56 −$6 -11%
Stuttgart Open: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Alexander Bublik Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
HSBC Championships: Jaqueline Cristian vs Katie Boulter Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump say "Iran" 10+ times during Cabinet meeting? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump announce the release of detained Americans? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Will "IRIS OUT" by Kenshi Yonezu (Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc) Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from April 28 to May 5, 2026? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 8, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? Jun 15 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Trump announce new sanctions on China? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? Jun 15 $22 −$3 -16%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 14? Jun 15 $24 −$6 -23%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 12 to May 19, 2026? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in May? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Google have the second highest estimated revenue for May 4–May 10 Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 15 $44 +$2 +5%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in May? Jun 15 $5 −$2 -37%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 15 $37 −$28 -76%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? Jun 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Abbas Araghchi sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $56 −$3 -5%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $23 +$32 +140%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $15 +$33 +216%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $104 +$261 +252%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 14 $37 +$61 +166%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $100 +$64 +64%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $16 −$7 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $9 9m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 58¢ $7 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 60¢ $118 1h
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+? BUY No 62¢ $62 15h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL No 45¢ $61 18h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $65 18h
Will Shehbaz Sharif sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 65¢ $45 18h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $16 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 43¢ $28 24h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL Yes 80¢ $8 25h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 97¢ $47 25h
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL No 29¢ $23 25h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $42 25h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 43¢ $83 25h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 66¢ $283 25h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 73¢ $44 25h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 26h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 89¢ $50 26h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 89¢ $11 26h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 67¢ $140 27h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 42¢ $96 39h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 36¢ $10 43h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 13¢ $17 44h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 57¢ $8 46h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 37¢ $71 2d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL No 5¢ $12 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL No 26¢ $54 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 44¢ $82 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 44¢ $6 2d
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 46¢ $2 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,139.65 · official $1,139.66 (match) · 1225 history records