Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:27:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x738d…0f1f other 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$84 (-2%) realized −$88 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate25%11W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$75per market
Trades / day32.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit10%portable
Net worth$404now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% −$427
crypto 1% −$7
sports 1% +$18
world 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -11.3% -19.7% 25% 16% -22.0%
≤30d 44 -11.3% -19.7% 25% 16% -22.0%
≤90d 44 -11.3% -19.7% 25% 16% -22.0%
all 44 -11.3% -19.7% 25% 16% -22.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.7% 16% -22.0%
10% ← realistic here -27.4% 14% -29.5%
15% -34.4% 7% -36.3%
20% -40.9% 5% -42.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$18 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$404
Realized−$88
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses11 / 33
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)44 / 48
History coverage3d
Avg bet$75
Trades / day32.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 57¢ 58¢ $250 $257 +$7 (+3%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 55¢ 54¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1,048 −$110 -10%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 18 $21 −$2 -11%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $53 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $21 −$7 -34%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $53 −$14 -26%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $21 −$9 -40%
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $43 +$14 +32%
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $53 +$10 +19%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 17 $52 −$6 -11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $63 −$7 -11%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 17 $105 −$7 -7%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 17 $105 −$13 -12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 17 $53 −$6 -11%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $21 −$2 -10%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 17 $21 −$3 -13%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 17 $21 −$3 -15%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 17 $21 −$6 -26%
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $21 −$4 -20%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $21 −$3 -12%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 17 $21 −$2 -10%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 17 $21 $0 +2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 17 $52 −$8 -15%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 17 $53 −$7 -13%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 17 $21 −$2 -12%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 17 $21 −$2 -12%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 17 $105 −$17 -16%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 17 $105 −$12 -11%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $74 −$35 -48%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $209 −$209 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $53 +$35 +67%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$15 -72%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 17 $21 −$5 -23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $105 +$36 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $52 +$19 +36%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 +$17 +79%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $52 −$6 -11%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 +$1 +5%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $42 −$20 -47%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $21 −$4 -21%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $21 −$2 -10%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$15 -72%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $95 −$40 -42%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $95 +$29 +31%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 72¢ $939 17m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $1,048 19m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 62¢ $19 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $53 1h
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 46¢ $14 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 14¢ $39 1h
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 6¢ $13 1h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $56 1h
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 19¢ $63 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 69¢ $47 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 61¢ $56 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 62¢ $98 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 53¢ $93 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 45¢ $47 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 46¢ $42 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 62¢ $19 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 42¢ $18 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 56¢ $18 1h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 4¢ $16 1h
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 43¢ $17 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 24¢ $19 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 48¢ $19 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 30¢ $22 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 64¢ $45 1h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 44¢ $46 1h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 28¢ $19 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 61¢ $88 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 64¢ $93 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $39 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $403.63 · official $403.63 (match) · 106 history records