Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T03:09:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
73 0x738f…fc34 crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$9 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%26W / 20L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$500per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$2,041now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$13
14 days+$11
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$6
other 0% $0
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-44.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 8 -37.4% -43.3% 62% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 17 -58.7% -62.6% 41% 0% -9.6%
all 46 -38.9% -44.8% 57% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.8% 0% -9.5%
10% -50.0% 0% -18.2%
15% -54.9% 0% -26.1%
20% -59.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,083) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -26% → late -52% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$2,041
Realized+$9
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses26 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)46 / 49
History coverage205d
Avg bet$500
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,038 $2,037 −$1 (-0%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 21? Jun 21 $2,034 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $2,028 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? Jun 19 $2,025 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on May 29? May 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 11? May 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump out as President by April 30? May 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on Apri May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 2? May 02 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 13? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 4? Apr 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 27? Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 20? Mar 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 14? Mar 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $1,104 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 9? Mar 10 $1,101 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $1,098 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 7? Mar 08 $1,097 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 6? Mar 07 $1,095 +$2 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on March 5? Mar 06 $1,092 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 4? Mar 05 $1,088 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $58,000 and $60,000 on March 3? Mar 04 $1,085 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $74,000 on March 2? Mar 03 $1,083 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 1? Mar 02 $1,079 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on February 28? Mar 01 $1,075 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on February 27? Feb 28 $1,072 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 26? Feb 27 $1,070 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on February 25? Feb 26 $1,068 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on February 24? Feb 25 $1,062 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on February 20? Feb 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on February 1 Feb 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at >$480 on the final day of trading of th Feb 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will the price of XRP be greater than $2.10 on February 9? Feb 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Feb 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will Google dip to $215 in January? Feb 02 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3,300 on February 1? Feb 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 24? Jan 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 19 $6 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on December 19? Dec 19 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 23? BUY No 100¢ $2,038 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 21? BUY No 100¢ $2,034 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,028 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,025 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 7d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 16d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $3 20d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on May 29? BUY No 0¢ $2 25d
Will there be at least 1900 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $3 32d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 34d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on May 11? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 43d
Will Meituan have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $2 47d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 2? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 51d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 22? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 62d
Will Hoppers be the March film with the highest domestic gross on Apri BUY No 100¢ $3 69d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,500 and $2,600 on April 13? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 71d
Trump out as President by April 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 77d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 4? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 80d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 88d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 88d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on March 20? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 94d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on March 14? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 101d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 10? BUY No 100¢ $1,104 104d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on March 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,101 106d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 8? BUY No 100¢ $1,098 107d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 7? BUY No 100¢ $1,097 108d
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,400 on March 6? BUY No 100¢ $1,095 109d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on March 5? BUY No 100¢ $1,092 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 4? BUY No 100¢ $1,088 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,041.24 · official $2,041.24 (match) · 87 history records