Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:21:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
73 0x7391…5925 world 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$438 (-23%) realized −$441 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$312per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$403now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$28
14 days−$438
30 days−$438
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$29
other 28% −$468
politics 25% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-21.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +11.6% +1.0% 67% 33% -4.7%
≤30d 5 -12.9% -21.2% 60% 20% -36.4%
≤90d 5 -12.9% -21.2% 60% 20% -36.4%
all 5 -12.9% -21.2% 60% 20% -36.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.2% 20% -36.4%
10% -28.7% 20% -42.5%
15% -35.6% 0% -48.1%
20% -41.9% 0% -53.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% too few recent
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$470 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.07 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$403
Realized−$441
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage14d
Avg bet$312
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? No 94¢ 95¢ $400 $403 +$3 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? Jun 27 $400 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Dovha Balka by June 30? Jun 22 $86 +$26 +31%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? Jun 21 $47 +$2 +4%
Game 1: Both Teams Destroy Barracks? Jun 13 $471 −$470 -100%
Will Trump visit Pakistan by June 30? Jun 13 $467 +$4 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $402.90 · official $402.90 (match) · 17 history records