Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:50:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
73 0x7391…5375 sports 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,277 (+4%) realized +$2,281 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate61%44W / 28L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown45%max
Avg bet$745per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$285est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$246now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 10d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 56% −$952
sports 44% +$8,034
crypto 0% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 67 +1.1% -8.5% 60% 51% +0.4%
≤30d 72 +1.0% -8.7% 61% 51% +0.6%
≤90d 72 +1.0% -8.7% 61% 51% +0.6%
all 72 +1.0% -8.7% 61% 51% +0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 51% +0.6%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 47% -9.1%
15% -25.4% 42% -17.9%
20% -32.7% 31% -25.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$1,003) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$350 vs −$295 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.86 per $1 lost it wins $1.86
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$246
Realized+$2,281
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses44 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$285
Open positions3
Markets (closed)72 / 87
History coverage10d
Avg bet$745
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown45%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Yes 40¢ 40¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 67¢ 66¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: United States (-2.5) Jun 26 $25 +$22 +88%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? Jun 26 $10 +$37 +365%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $5,094 +$3,243 +64%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-2 Jun 26 $35 +$23 +65%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $1,624 +$607 +37%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $20 −$19 -93%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $3,547 −$923 -26%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Ne Jun 26 $303 +$131 +43%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $57 +$31 +55%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $51 +$53 +105%
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) Jun 25 $203 −$200 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $2,063 −$2,050 -99%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 25 $51 +$36 +70%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $35 +$27 +76%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) Jun 25 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$48 +94%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on Jun 25 $202 +$123 +61%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $30 +$19 +62%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $25 +$23 +91%
Exact Score: Morocco 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 24 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Korea Republic? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Bosnia and Herze Jun 24 $51 +$65 +127%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 AND Will Bosnia and Herzegov Jun 24 $51 +$88 +172%
Will Czechia vs. Mexico end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $6,072 +$591 +10%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $3,005 +$186 +6%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $304 −$272 -89%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $505 +$230 +46%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $4,383 +$4,020 +92%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 23 $204 −$198 -97%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $506 −$444 -88%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5,030 −$2,493 -50%
Spread: England (-3.5) Jun 23 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $705 +$259 +37%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3,008 +$289 +10%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 23 $202 +$101 +50%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 23 $503 +$146 +29%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $404 +$184 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,308 +$54 +4%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $2,277 +$225 +10%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 −$50 -98%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $101 +$58 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $1,632 53m
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $302 58m
Spread: United States (-1.5) SELL United States $1 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $811 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 33¢ $764 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $2,021 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 43¢ $998 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? SELL Yes 33¢ $599 1h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 58¢ $3,038 1h
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $511 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 49¢ $508 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,015 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 51¢ $861 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 70¢ $1,009 2h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,015 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 5h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 40¢ $102 5h
Spread: Netherlands (-3.5) BUY Netherlands 55¢ $203 5h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 79¢ $2,013 5h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25 BUY 73¢ $100 12h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will BUY 32¢ $41 12h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 12h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 1.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY 59¢ $43 12h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: United States (-2.5) BUY 52¢ $25 12h
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 31¢ $20 12h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-2 BUY 60¢ $35 12h
Exact Score: Paraguay 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 12h
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 12h
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $36 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $246.20 · official $246.20 (match) · 173 history records