Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:37:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
73 0x7393…1615 politics 86 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$16 (+3%) realized +$22 · open −$6
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate56%40W / 32L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$13
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 43% +$10
politics 35% +$4
culture 9% +$2
crypto 8% −$1
world 4% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +22.2% +10.6% 86% 43% +0.7%
≤30d 7 +22.2% +10.6% 86% 43% +0.7%
≤90d 14 +129.8% +107.9% 93% 43% +6.8%
all 72 +8.9% -1.5% 56% 11% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.5% 11% -5.8%
10% -10.9% 10% -14.8%
15% -19.5% 7% -23.0%
20% -27.4% 7% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.1 per $1 lost it wins $2.1
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized+$22
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses40 / 32
Open positions14
Markets (closed)72 / 86
History coverage107d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 72 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $50,000 on July 2? Jun 26 $40 −$1 -3%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Jun 25 $5 +$3 +56%
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentar Jun 25 $5 +$3 +56%
Will the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) win the most seats Jun 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $16 +$4 +28%
Will MegaETH launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 25 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Solstice launch a token by September 30 2026? Jun 25 $18 +$2 +8%
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenia Apr 02 $1 +$8 +809%
Will the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 20 Apr 02 $1 +$8 +809%
Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026? Apr 02 $19 +$1 +4%
Will EdgeX launch a token by December 31, 2026? Apr 02 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Solstice launch a token by March 31 2026? Apr 02 $16 +$4 +24%
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? Apr 02 $18 +$2 +9%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Apr 02 $8 $0 +2%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Mar 24 $2 −$1 -58%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Mar 23 $0 $0 +98%
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Mar 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Mar 16 $8 $0 +0%
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Mar 16 $8 +$1 +8%
Will Zootopia 2 win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awa Mar 16 $8 $0 +5%
Will Sinners win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $8 $0 +3%
Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Aca Mar 15 $8 $0 +4%
Will F1 win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 15 $8 $0 +2%
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential elec Mar 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 14 $5 $0 +2%
Will Forum for Democracy (FvD) win the most seats in The Hague’s 2026 Mar 14 $0 $0 -100%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 14 $4 $0 -2%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will Yoon Sang-hyun win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Mar 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Heart for The Hague (HvDH) win the most seats in The Hague’s 2026 Mar 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 12 $7 $0 +4%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Mar 12 $7 $0 +2%
Will Democrats 66 (D66) win the most seats in The Hague’s 2026 municip Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Alfonso López Chau win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Mar 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Mar 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Mar 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will The Lost Bus win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Mar 12 $5 $0 -6%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Mar 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will Jurassic World Rebirth win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academ Mar 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e Mar 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 12 $8 $0 +0%
Will Yoo Jeong-bok win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? Mar 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Democrats (D) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parlia Mar 12 $0 $0 +11%
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election? Mar 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand? Mar 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Mar 12 $4 $0 -2%
Will Lê Minh Hưng be the next Prime Minister of Vietnam? Mar 12 $8 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $50,000 on July 2? SELL No 97¢ $39 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $50,000 on July 2? BUY No 100¢ $40 2h
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president SELL No 92¢ $8 85d
Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 78¢ $16 90d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the SELL No 38¢ $0 93d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the SELL No 38¢ $0 93d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the SELL No 38¢ $0 93d
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the SELL No 38¢ $0 93d
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after SELL Yes $1 94d
Will Solstice launch a token by September 30 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 98d
Will Tempo launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $6 99d
Will MegaETH launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 99d
Will EdgeX launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 100d
Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $15 100d
Will Nansen launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $17 100d
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election? BUY No $0 101d
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $15 101d
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $8 101d
Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026? BUY No 86¢ $0 101d
Will EdgeX launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $4 101d
Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $0 102d
Will OpenSea launch a token by March 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $18 102d
Will Solstice launch a token by March 31 2026? BUY No 80¢ $16 102d
Will Sinners win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 100¢ $8 102d
Will KPop Demon Hunters win Best Animated Feature Film at the 98th Aca SELL Yes 98¢ $8 102d
Will F1 win Best Visual Effects at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 100¢ $8 102d
Will Umaro Sissoco Embaló win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential elec SELL No 95¢ $8 102d
Will Pacifica launch a token by June 30 2026? BUY No 86¢ $17 103d
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $4 103d
Will OpenSea launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $5 103d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.71 · official $116.71 (match) · 276 history records