Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:13:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7397…1968 sports 1011 markets active 4h ago coverage 140d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 140d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$228 (-2%) realized +$74 · open −$302
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate54%522W / 442L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$267now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$19
7 days+$33
14 days+$50
30 days+$150
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$638
sports 30% −$215
crypto 10% −$47
other 8% −$141
politics 5% −$129
culture 2% −$2
finance 1% +$36
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 151 +4.6% -5.3% 50% 46% -6.4%
≤30d 416 +12.7% +1.9% 56% 52% -2.3%
≤90d 529 +11.3% +0.7% 53% 48% -25.7%
all 964 +7.5% -2.8% 54% 46% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 46% -18.3%
10% -12.1% 41% -26.1%
15% -20.6% 35% -33.2%
20% -28.3% 28% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$7 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

140d coverage
Net worth$267
Realized+$74
Unrealized−$302
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses522 / 442
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions47
Markets (closed)964 / 1011
History coverage140d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 47 History 964 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Yes 24¢ 6¢ $159 $44 −$116 (-73%)
Venezuela election scheduled by December 31, 2026? Yes 43¢ 37¢ $35 $30 −$5 (-13%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? Yes 26¢ 5¢ $123 $24 −$99 (-80%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $16 $21 +$5 (+33%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? Yes 16¢ 4¢ $69 $17 −$53 (-76%)
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $35 $15 −$20 (-56%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 45¢ 45¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 90¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+0%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 87¢ $8 $9 +$0 (+3%)
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Reds St. Louis Cardinals 41¢ 38¢ $9 $8 −$1 (-6%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Yes 42¢ 42¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-9%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 68¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-17%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+3%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 64¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? Yes 22¢ 7¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-69%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 28¢ 24¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-12%)
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Boston Red Sox 48¢ 48¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+0%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $6 $0 +5%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 17 $5 +$1 +22%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 17 $8 +$3 +40%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $3 +$7 +250%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
ITF Taipei: Erika Sema vs Eunhye Lee Jun 17 $1 +$1 +124%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $1 $0 +7%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $20 +$11 +54%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $16 +$14 +83%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +68%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +20%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 16 $20 +$10 +54%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 16 $19 −$10 -53%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $7 $0 +7%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1 $0 +48%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$18 -58%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $5 −$3 -62%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Asuncion 2: Bruno Fernandez vs Nick Hardt Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 16 $31 −$26 -84%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Uruguay O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $26 +$14 +54%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5 Jun 16 $6 +$3 +49%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $15 +$9 +61%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 +$6 +178%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? Jun 15 $62 +$2 +2%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $11 −$8 -72%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$4 +365%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 15 $42 +$24 +57%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $2 −$1 -84%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Ecuador O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $3 +$1 +28%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $11 $0 +2%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $12 +$8 +70%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$1 +109%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$1 +27%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 24? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -71%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? Jun 14 $1 $0 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 30¢ $6 3h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 3h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $6 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 59¢ $6 3h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 5h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 5h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 6h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 51¢ $1 6h
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 6h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 28¢ $3 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 99¢ $25 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $1 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $13 9h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $11 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 9h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 11h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 12h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 37¢ $4 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 12h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 51¢ $2 14h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 41¢ $2 14h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 60¢ $30 15h
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by December 31? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 15h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 18¢ $9 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $267.32 · official $267.32 (match) · 3500 history records