Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T22:10:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x7399…50a3 other 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$207 (-40%) realized −$205 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%7W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days−$225
14 days−$224
30 days−$224
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$216
sports 14% −$6
crypto 5% −$3
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -30.1% -36.8% 46% 38% -59.5%
≤30d 14 -25.3% -32.5% 50% 43% -58.9%
≤90d 14 -25.3% -32.5% 50% 43% -58.9%
all 14 -25.3% -32.5% 50% 43% -58.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 43% -58.9%
10% -38.9% 43% -62.8%
15% -44.8% 36% -66.4%
20% -50.2% 14% -69.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$42 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$205
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses7 / 7
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)14 / 20
History coverage7d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 76¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? No 51¢ 50¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-28%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 84¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? No 50¢ 48¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 18 $21 +$8 +38%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $53 +$56 +106%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $261 −$258 -99%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $3 +$3 +83%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $6 +$3 +41%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $3 +$1 +30%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $21 +$2 +9%
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $3 +$1 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 27h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 46¢ $53 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $3 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $261 3d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 73¢ $18 3d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $21 3d
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $21 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 4d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $3 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $3 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 73¢ $21 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $3 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 46¢ $3 5d
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $10 6d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $3 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 46¢ $3 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 6d
New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? BUY No 50¢ $11 6d
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? BUY No 51¢ $21 6d
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY Yes 50¢ $3 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $4 6d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $21 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $4 7d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $3 7d
Mexico vs. South Africa: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 66¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.07 · official $98.07 (match) · 36 history records