Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:32:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x739a…552c crypto 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,245 (-78%) realized −$3,424 · open +$179
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -99% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -99% what you keep after slip
Net edge-99%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 51L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$61per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$779now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$3,210
other 0% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-99.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 23 -98.3% -98.4% 0% 0% -99.3%
all 51 -98.9% -99.0% 0% 0% -99.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -99.0% 0% -99.4%
10% -99.1% 0% -99.5%
15% -99.2% 0% -99.5%
20% -99.3% 0% -99.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -99% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -99% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -99% → late -98% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$67 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$779
Realized−$3,424
Unrealized+$179
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 51
Open positions17
Markets (closed)51 / 68
History coverage143d
Avg bet$61
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $270 +$70 (+35%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $110 $197 +$87 (+79%)
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $122 $119 −$3 (-2%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $50 $87 +$37 (+74%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $23 +$13 (+127%)
Will Solana reach $120 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-34%)
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $15 +$4 (+34%)
Will Solana reach $130 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $20 $11 −$9 (-46%)
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $11 $10 −$1 (-7%)
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $9 $3 −$6 (-61%)
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-39%)
Will XRP reach $1.80 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-12%)
Will Solana reach $110 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Will XRP reach $2.20 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-64%)
Will XRP reach $2.60 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-53%)
Will Solana reach $100 in June? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will XRP reach $1.60 in April? Apr 29 $7 −$7 -94%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in April? Apr 29 $11 −$10 -93%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? Apr 29 $33 −$31 -94%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? Apr 29 $38 −$35 -93%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in April? Apr 25 $138 −$128 -93%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in April? Apr 25 $67 −$62 -93%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 April 20-26? Apr 25 $37 −$34 -93%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in April? Apr 25 $12 −$11 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $88,000 April 20-26? Apr 25 $62 −$58 -93%
Will XRP reach $2.00 April 20-26? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -93%
Will XRP reach $2.10 April 20-26? Apr 25 $1 −$1 -93%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in April? Apr 25 $429 −$397 -93%
Will XRP reach $2.40 in April? Apr 25 $15 −$14 -93%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in April? Apr 25 $26 −$24 -93%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in April? Apr 25 $32 −$30 -93%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in April? Apr 25 $35 −$32 -93%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in April? Apr 25 $20 −$12 -60%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in March? Mar 31 $23 −$23 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.50 March 23-29? Mar 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in March? Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.80 March 23-29? Mar 28 $32 −$32 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.10 March 23-29? Mar 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in March? Mar 12 $46 −$46 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in March? Mar 12 $298 −$298 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in March? Mar 12 $53 −$53 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.10 March 9-15? Mar 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.70 March 9-15? Mar 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 09 $8 −$8 -98%
Will XRP reach $3.20 in March? Mar 07 $242 −$242 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in February? Feb 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in February? Feb 27 $29 −$26 -91%
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in February? Feb 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Feb 26 $1,050 −$1,050 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in February? Feb 26 $340 −$340 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.80 in February? Feb 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.70 February 16-22? Feb 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.10 February 16-22? Feb 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.90 February 16-22? Feb 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.60 in February? Feb 18 $100 −$85 -85%
Will XRP reach $2.10 February 9-15? Feb 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Will XRP reach $2.00 February 9-15? Feb 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will XRP reach $1.90 February 9-15? Feb 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on February 13? Feb 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 13? Feb 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 13? Feb 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.80 on February 10? Feb 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.70 on February 10? Feb 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.00 on February 11? Feb 07 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 45m
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 46m
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 48m
Will XRP reach $1.80 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will XRP reach $2.40 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 1h
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $17 1h
Will Solana reach $130 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 1h
Will Solana reach $110 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Solana reach $100 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $128 2h
Will XRP reach $2.20 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 2h
Will XRP reach $2.60 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 2h
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $214 2h
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $32 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,100 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $118 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $53 3h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $13 3h
Will Ethereum reach $2,500 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 3h
Will XRP reach $2.80 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 3h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY Yes 0¢ $9 3h
Will XRP reach $1.60 in April? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 57d
Will XRP reach $1.80 in April? BUY Yes 0¢ $11 57d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 57d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 57d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 57d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in April? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 57d
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in April? BUY Yes 0¢ $38 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $778.89 · official $780.36 (match) · 174 history records