Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:54:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

73
0x739d…d2ff
sports · 648 markets active 0h ago
1.5score
+$577 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$21 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge
Net worth$19
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses180 / 467
Est. fees paid−$254
Open positions1
Markets (closed)647 / 648
History coverage216d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%
Chart Positions 1 History 647 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$285
7 days−$110
14 days−$138
30 days−$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? Yes $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Bucks vs. Clippers Bucks 13¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will US Lecce vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? Yes 11¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-02? Yes 20¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Pistons vs. Raptors Raptors 31¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Will Yunnan Yukun FC win on 2026-05-06? Yes 25¢ $54 $0 −$54 (-100%)
Will RCD Mallorca vs. Girona FC end in a draw? Yes 32¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Spread: Manchester United FC (-1.5) Manchester United FC 19¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC end in a draw? Yes 31¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will Poland win on 2026-03-31? Yes 12¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Spread: Racing Club de Lens (-1.5) Racing Club de Lens 13¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Nuggets vs. Jazz Jazz 16¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5) SSC Napoli 24¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Nuggets: 1H Moneyline Nuggets 41¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Arsenal FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Yes 22¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Magic vs. Pistons Magic 16¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? Yes 33¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Nuggets Nuggets 27¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Spread: Liverpool (-1.5) Liverpool 28¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Zhejiang Lions 42¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Clippers Raptors 34¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Spread: VfL Wolfsburg (-1.5) VfL Wolfsburg 27¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Raptors 17¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will Armenia vs. Hungary end in a draw? Yes 21¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bucks vs. Lakers Lakers 37¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $336 −$201 -60%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $296 −$290 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $61 +$153 +250%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $31 +$53 +172%
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$99 +195%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 09 $51 −$28 -55%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $19 +$15 +79%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 07 $41 +$88 +216%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 05 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 05 $20 +$52 +254%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $71 −$69 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $31 −$28 -92%
Will SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? May 20 $30 −$29 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 20 $38 +$49 +130%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $37 −$36 -98%
Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5) May 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Paris FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 17 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Levante UD vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? May 17 $54 −$53 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Girona FC vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol end in a draw? May 16 $50 +$84 +167%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 16 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Seattle Sounders FC vs. San Jose Earthquakes end in a draw? May 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Racing Club de Lens vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Spread: Pohang Steelers FC (-1.5) May 12 $53 −$52 -98%
Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $56 −$2 -4%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica vs. SC Braga end in a draw? May 11 $243 −$45 -18%
Will SSC Napoli vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? May 11 $61 −$52 -84%
Spread: Rayo Vallecano de Madrid (-1.5) May 11 $36 −$8 -21%
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw? May 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: 1. FSV Mainz 05 (-1.5) May 10 $51 −$30 -60%
Will West Ham United FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 10 $17 −$13 -73%
Will FC Anyang vs. Jeonbuk Hyundai Motors FC end in a draw? May 10 $14 +$23 +164%
Will Yokohama F·Marinos vs. Kashima Antlers end in a draw? May 10 $102 +$134 +131%
Spread: Kashima Antlers (-1.5) May 10 $38 −$37 -98%
Spread: Atlanta United FC (-1.5) May 09 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $122 +$33 +27%
Will US Lecce vs. Juventus FC end in a draw? May 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5) May 09 $31 +$62 +201%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid vs. RC Celta de Vigo end in a draw? May 09 $26 −$25 -98%
Manchester City FC vs. Brentford FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $15 −$5 -31%
Will Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki end in a draw? May 09 $66 −$34 -52%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) May 09 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Torino FC win on 2026-05-08? May 09 $102 +$150 +147%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5) May 08 $82 −$40 -49%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $26 −$25 -97%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 07 $82 −$80 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC end in a draw? May 07 $31 −$30 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 83% −$556
other 17% +$605
world 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 3 Türkiye? BUY Yes $21 15m
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 22¢ $24 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) SELL Scotland 23¢ $102 1h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 36¢ $204 2h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 37¢ $132 2h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $143 26h
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $153 26h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $61 32h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 36¢ $31 2d
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? SELL Yes 81¢ $67 4d
Will China PR vs. Thailand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $51 4d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) SELL Knicks $2 5d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) SELL Knicks $1 5d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) SELL Knicks 31¢ $19 5d
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) BUY Knicks 40¢ $51 5d
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? SELL Yes 32¢ $35 6d
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $19 6d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 31¢ $41 8d
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions BUY Zhejiang Lions 42¢ $61 8d
Will Mexico vs. Serbia end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 9d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Knicks 28¢ $20 10d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 32¢ $71 22d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs $2 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 32¢ $10 24d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 21¢ $20 24d
Will SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 24d
Cavaliers vs. Knicks BUY Cavaliers 41¢ $37 25d
Spurs vs. Thunder SELL Spurs 43¢ $12 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 36¢ $38 26d
Spread: Nashville SC (-1.5) BUY Nashville SC 23¢ $31 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +76.5% +59.7% 62% 62% -11.0%
≤30d 22 +7.9% -2.4% 41% 36% -24.8%
≤90d 295 -1.3% -10.7% 27% 26% -2.1%
all 647 +6.7% -3.4% 28% 27% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 27% -8.1%
10% -12.7% 27% -16.9%
15% -21.1% 27% -24.9%
20% -28.8% 26% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.57 · official $18.57 (match) · 1068 history records