Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:12:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73a0…e4d7 other 232 markets active 2h ago coverage 129d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$72 (-0%) realized −$72 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%9W / 223L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day10.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$16
14 days−$29
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$42
sports 23% −$17
politics 8% −$5
culture 7% −$7
crypto 6% −$6
economics 5% −$4
world 3% −$2
tech 1% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 70 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 180 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 232 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

129d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses9 / 223
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)232 / 232
History coverage129d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day10.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 232 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 19 $205 −$1 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $332 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $235 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 18 $122 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $429 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $386 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $313 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 17 $715 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $47 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $267 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 16 $469 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $96 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $101 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 15 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $498 −$1 -0%
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $232 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 15 $609 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $295 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $150 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $248 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $597 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $173 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $214 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $409 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $447 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $112 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 11 $50 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 10 $300 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $51 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $897 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $113 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $542 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $221 −$1 -1%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $321 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $115 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 08 $602 −$1 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $369 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $161 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $328 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $582 −$1 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $384 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $462 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $46 1h
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $46 3h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $46 8h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $46 10h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $46 17h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $46 18h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $46 21h
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $46 23h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $46 27h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $46 29h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $46 30h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 32h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 35h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 37h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $47 39h
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $47 40h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $47 42h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $47 44h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $47 45h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $47 46h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $47 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 2d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $47 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $47 2d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $47 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $47 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $47 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1341 history records