Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:11:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
73 0x73a3…ee24 other 27 markets active 0h ago coverage 97d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$10,945 (+13%) realized +$9,889 · open +$1,056
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,015per market
Trades / day27.6pace
Kalshi-fit11%portable
Net worth$56,854now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3,000
14 days+$3,000
30 days+$3,000
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 96% +$12,808
sports 4% −$2,335
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +66.7% +50.8% 100% 100% +50.8%
≤30d 1 +66.7% +50.8% 100% 100% +50.8%
≤90d 3 +203.5% +174.6% 100% 100% +215.7%
all 9 +1.2% -8.5% 33% 33% +24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.6 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.5% 33% +24.7%
10% -17.2% 33% +12.7%
15% ← realistic here -25.2% 33% +1.8%
20% -32.6% 33% -8.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 98% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +249% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +38% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
98.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8,233 vs −$2,547 · ×3.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.62 per $1 lost it wins $1.62
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$56,854
Realized+$9,889
Unrealized+$1,056
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Open positions18
Markets (closed)9 / 27
History coverage97d
Avg bet$3,015
Trades / day27.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit11%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 19¢ $9,300 $9,675 +$375 (+4%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $7,527 $7,222 −$304 (-4%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $7,100 $6,900 −$200 (-3%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 11¢ $6,150 $5,375 −$775 (-13%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2,912 $4,611 +$1,699 (+58%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 92¢ $4,640 $4,607 −$32 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $3,400 $3,462 +$62 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2,800 $2,825 +$25 (+1%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $3,000 $2,500 −$500 (-17%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1,434 $2,377 +$943 (+66%)
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,302 $1,953 +$651 (+50%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,643 $1,625 −$18 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 15¢ $983 $1,273 +$290 (+29%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,500 $750 −$750 (-50%)
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1,250 $625 −$625 (-50%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $436 $545 +$109 (+25%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $292 $365 +$73 (+25%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $131 $163 +$33 (+25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $4,500 +$3,000 +67%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 15 $4,964 +$21,160 +426%
TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes Mar 28 $460 +$540 +117%
Will Florida win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $4,990 −$4,990 -100%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $809 −$808 -100%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $1,948 −$1,948 -100%
Will Duke win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $5,000 −$4,663 -93%
Saint Louis Billikens vs. Georgia Bulldogs Mar 19 $1,400 −$1,400 -100%
Texas A&M Aggies vs. Saint Mary's Gaels Mar 19 $1,475 −$1,475 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 0m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 2m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 3m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 4m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 5m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $103 6m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 6m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 6m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 6m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 7m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 7m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $4 7m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 8m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 9m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9m
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 9m
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11m
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 11m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56,853.91 · official $56,853.91 (match) · 2708 history records