Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:31:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
73 0x73a4…7e3b sports 11 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$281 (+30%) realized +$288 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +63% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +36% what you keep after slip
Net edge+36%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$451now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% +$211
other 34% +$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+47.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +62.7% +47.2% 100% 100% +45.4%
≤30d 5 +62.7% +47.2% 100% 100% +45.4%
≤90d 5 +62.7% +47.2% 100% 100% +45.4%
all 5 +62.7% +47.2% 100% 100% +45.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +47.2% 100% +45.4%
10% +33.1% 100% +31.5%
15% +20.3% 100% +18.8%
20% +8.5% 80% +7.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +61% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +63% · $-wt +61% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$55 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$451
Realized+$288
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions5
Markets (closed)5 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 60¢ 64¢ $150 $161 +$11 (+8%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 68¢ 68¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $100 $91 −$9 (-9%)
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $100 $90 −$10 (-10%)
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Over 52¢ 52¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 20 $101 +$65 +65%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 20 $101 +$77 +76%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $101 +$40 +40%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $51 +$41 +81%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $101 +$53 +52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 68¢ $101 27m
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 52¢ $8 29m
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND W BUY 37¢ $8 29m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $152 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 15¢ $103 1h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 56¢ $101 20h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $101 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $2 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 100¢ $154 20h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 65¢ $101 20h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $90 21h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 54¢ $51 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $451.24 · official $459.24 · 17 history records